This paper analyses the structural challenges, root causes and dynamics of conflict, instability and resilience in Nigeria. The first half of the paper explores the overall socio-economic, socio-cultural, political and environmental factors that shape conflict, instability and resilience in Nigeria. The second half of the paper explores the specific regionalised conflicts in ...» more
Conflict analysis
Drivers of conflict in Tunisia: An annotated bibliography
Tunisia has witnessed an increase in conflict activity in recent years, both in the form of violent political protest and acts of violence perpetrated by armed jihadist groups. This report identifies some of the key literature on drivers of conflict in Tunisia, looking at both short-term and structural factors. The literature included in this report identifies the following ...» more
Violent extremism and terrorism in Yemen
Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) first gained control of territory in 2011 when it took advantage of political chaos; it once again managed to take control of territory following the current civil war, which began in early 2015. AQAP’s aim is to create a number of smaller emirates, which will eventually link to form a caliphate when they deem the time is right. AQAP ...» more
Conflict analysis
Conflict analysis is a structured process of analysis to understand conflict. It focuses on the conflict profile (its history), the actors involved and their perspectives, the causes of conflict, and the dynamics of how these elements interact. This Topic Guide looks at how conflict analysis is done – at the systematic approaches and tools for conflict analysis developed for ...» more
Women and countering violent extremism
The experience of various women and CVE programmes confirms that women can and do play a significant role in P/CVE - but they need to be supported and empowered to do so. Key lessons emerging from experience to date include the following: Need for gender mainstreaming: It is important to consult women and involve them in programme design and implementation, carry out ...» more
Conflict and gender dynamics in Yemen
The current conflict in Yemen, which began in 2015, has resulted in a humanitarian catastrophe. As of March 2017, 18.8 million people are in need of humanitarian support, and 10.3 million are in acute need (Sikurajapathy and Al-Fotih, 2017). Women, men, boys and girls have been affected in different ways by the conflict. This rapid reviews looks at the impact of the conflict ...» more
Countering violent extremism
This Topic Guide introduces conceptual and practical approaches to violent extremism in different contexts, setting out what we know from the literature (English and Arabic). ...» more
Economic drivers of conflict in the Western Balkans
This report looks at each of the six Western Balkans countries listed above, identifies the key economic challenges they face and assesses whether any of these are, or have the potential to become, drivers of conflict. The literature reviewed largely comprised reports from international development/finance organisations, notably the World Bank, IMF and European Commission, as ...» more
Sinai conflict analysis
The Sinai conflict has been underway since 2011 and has become progressively more intense and violent, fuelled by localised grievances as well as wider regional developments. The key actors involved are militant jihadist groups, local Bedouin tribes and the Egyptian government/military; others such as Israel, Gaza and the Multinational Forces and Observers have varying ...» more
Conflict analysis of Egypt
In 2011 Egypt experienced mass protests culminating in the fall of long serving president, Hosni Mubarak. The time in power of the country’s first democratically elected President, the Muslim Brotherhood’s Mohamed Morsi, was short-lived. He was deposed by Egypt’s military on 3 July 2013, following anti-government demonstrations. Abdul Fatah el-Sisi, former head of the armed ...» more
Cross-border conflict drivers and breaks – Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran and Iraq
This report provides an overview of the evidence on cross-border conflict drivers and breaks along the Pakistan–Afghanistan–Iran–Iraq route. Direct evidence on the nature of conflict-related flows along this route in its entirety is limited. Therefore, this report includes evidence on crossborder conflict dynamics between neighbouring countries along the route. This report was ...» more
Gender and conflict in Ukraine
The conflicts in eastern and southern Ukraine constitute a significant humanitarian crisis for the country and the region, with at least 1.7 million internally displaced persons, two-thirds of whom are women (UNOCHA 2016, p. 7; UNHCR 2015, p. 5) and approximately 1.5 million people seeking asylum or other forms of legal stay in neighbouring countries (UNHCR 2016, p. 7). Women ...» more
Cross-border drivers of conflict across Sudan, Egypt, and Jordan
Conflict drivers/breaks often affect multiple countries simultaneously. Moreover, conflict drivers such as violent extremism; migration; and goods trafficking are often interlinked (Browne, 2013, p. 1). Migration and trafficking often follow the same geographical routes through multiple countries, and can also involve weapons smuggling for extremist groups. Moreover, ...» more
Factors behind the fall of Mosul to ISIL (Daesh) in 2014
The city of Mosul in Iraq’s Nineveh Province fell to the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), known in Iraq as Daesh, on June 9 2014, following three days of fighting between jihadists and the Iraqi Security Forces. General factors behind the fall of Mosul in 2014: Sectarian policies: Marginalisation of the Sunni minority following the 2003 US-led invasion of ...» more
The role of online/social media in countering violent extremism in East Africa
There is growing recognition amongst academics and policy makers that de-radicalisation and countering violent extremism programmes can be a more effective way of tackling extremism than purely militaristic approaches. Online and social media are useful in the dissemination of counter narratives in multiple languages, and to reach a broad, geographically diverse audience. The ...» more
Online/social media as a pathway towards violent extremism in East Africa
Findings from a large and growing body of literature consistently highlight the increasingly sophisticated manner in which violent extremist organisations use the Internet and social media. However, there is relatively little empirical research to determine why and how individuals join violent extremist groups such as Al-Shabaab. Evidence is mixed and individual case studies ...» more
Webinar: religion, conflict and violent extremism
On May 11 2016, Dr. Sara Silvestri (City University London), Andrew Glazzard and Martine Zeuthen (RUSI) discussed issues raised in their reading packs on religion and conflict and violent extremism. An audio-only version is available below.
The Central African Republic crisis
Since March 2013, the Central African Republic (CAR) has been experiencing violent sectarian conflict. The conflict initially began between two well-defined rival groups that became increasingly fragmented, with competing agendas and interests. Further, the current transitional government lacks the capacity and political will to enforce any real political reforms. A number ...» more
Political economy of conflicts in Kyrgyzstan since the 2000s
A fundamental finding, widely shared among authors, is that it is not only the national level that matters, but also regional and local ones, in violent and non-violent conflicts. In recent and older history, local conflicts sometime develop into national ones. Other key findings of the literature review include: The root causes of both conflicts are largely similar and ...» more
Violent extremism
‘Violent extremism’ is rarely defined: neither the United Nations nor the European Union has an official definition. USAID defines it as “advocating, engaging in, preparing, or otherwise supporting ideologically motivated or justified violence to further social, economic or political objectives”. However, this apparently simple and obvious statement conceals a great deal of controversy and uncertainty….» more
