What makes voters in new African democracies align with political parties? What are the nature of these alignments and the conditions under which they are activated? This article from the departments of Political Science at Kent State University and the University of Missouri describes and analyses voter alignments in the new democracy of Ghana in two recent elections, 1996 and 2000. It argues that much of what we know about electoral and democratic political processes in the established democracies may also apply to new democracies in Africa.
The size of the core voting population in Ghana is about 82% of the total, refuting the assumption that voting volatility in new and transitional democracies is always extremely high. Core and swing voters cannot be distinguished by structural factors. The factors behind the party alignment of core voters are similar to Western patterns. Swing voters seem to be characterised by a conscious evaluation of government and candidate performance in a sign of relatively ‘mature’ democratic voting behaviour.
The results of this study are based on a pilot survey of Ghanaian voters carried out between June and August 2003. The sample represents the most important regional variations in election outcomes and thus reflects political realities:
- The elections in 1996, 2000, and 2004 are widely regarded as free and fair. The party that won the presidency also gained a majority in each parliamentary contest, but the competitiveness of the legislative body has intensified.
- Official 2000 election results show that the share of swing voters is about 13%. Swing voters moved primarily from the then ruling party (NDC) to the then opposition party (NPP).
- Core voters’ choice of alignment with either of the two main parties in Ghana tends to be associated with structural factors including age, gender, education, class, social status, and sector and income.
- There are no significant differences between core and swing voters on any of these structural dimensions.
Voting behaviour in Ghana appears to be relatively sophisticated, although the choice of political leadership remains limited:
- The proportion of swing voters in the system is sufficient to sustain a high level of competition and the prospect of repeated changes in government in the future – a hallmark of a functioning democracy.
- The proportion of swing voters is not so high as to validate assumptions of high voter volatility in new African democracies.
- The fact that the voting behaviour of swing voters in Ghana cannot be understood in terms of structural factors suggests a rational evaluation of government and candidate performance. It also suggests that they may shift their electoral loyalty back again in the future should circumstances change.
- The factors which explain party alignments among the core voters in Ghana are comparable to those in established democracies: the urban-rural divide; level of education; occupation status and sector; and income levels.
- Since 1992, the two main parties have dominated the electoral competition under the same leadership groups and organisational names. Thus the political prize remains sketched in limited structural terms.
