What are the main causes of human insecurity in eastern Africa? This research from Witwatersrand University analyses developments in Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, Sudan, Uganda and Tanzania. It argues that state fragility is the root cause of most conflicts in eastern Africa. Reviving structures that reduce the challenges to human livelihoods will involve a return to strong territorial order, national cohesion, economic viability and the building of regional institutions for security and prosperity.
In eastern Africa, political and state fragility, resource scarcities and environmental degradation have contributed to a regional context that is dogged by intrastate conflicts, interstate wars and political extremism. Political unrest has produced forms of statelessness and marginality that have deepened societal insecurities and strained human livelihoods.
In addition to profound political instability and economic destitution, countries in this region are having to deal with escalating communal violence, small arms proliferation and massive movements of people within and beyond the region. Regional insecurities have also had wider global resonance, attracting international actors, institutions and resources.
Since the turn of the new century, man-made conflicts and natural disasters, such as droughts and floods, have required renewed efforts from the international community. International engagement will continue because new security threats such as terrorism and piracy have emerged, exploiting existing weaknesses in states and societies of the region.
The regional fault lines that potentially could create more disasters or opportunities for regeneration and prosperity are Somalia, Sudan and Ethiopia- Eritrea. Future prospects for dealing with the complex security challenges of the region depend primarily on how current and ongoing conflicts are resolved. Key challenges include the following:
- Weak states and governments that lack authority and legitimacy, resulting in the weak organisation of security.
- Ecological, environmental and health vulnerabilities that have exacerbated the inability of states and societies to produce food and other forms of material sustenance.
- The proliferation of lawless and marginal communities imperiled by the vagaries of the weather, internecine communal violence and state neglect.
- Susceptibility to international terrorist and criminal networks.
The outcomes of the conflicts in Somalia, Sudan and Ethiopia-Eritrea are going to be critical to both the broader regional security environment and the modalities of external engagement in the region. To give the region a chance of effecting positive outcomes, the following issues should be addressed:
- National, regional and international efforts should work to boost the capacity of states as providers of order and prosperity.
- Eastern African states should take note of international examples of strategies for reducing state fragility and consolidating stability.
- The United Nations and other international donors should help eastern African countries deal with the problems that transcend borders such as environmental and ecological challenges, refugee flows, piracy and threats of terrorism.
- International engagement should be strategic, limited and time-bound, in order to give space for regional actors to build their own local capacities.
- Regional states need to rethink the pattern of institution-building and move away from the multiple and duplicative institutions inherited from past decades toward more narrowly-focused and functional institutions.
- Regional economic institutions provide a more stable foundation for collective peace and security.
