Despite successful elections and a lasting military ceasefire, Nepal’s peace process is facing its most severe tests yet. This report, published by International Crisis Group, argues that a number of major issues remain unresolved. There is little unity of effort amongst the governing coalition led by the Maoists, but the democratic alternatives are alarmingly weak. The parties need to rebuild consensus on the way forward or face a public backlash. International supporters of Nepal must target assistance and political pressure to encourage the parties to face the threats to peace.
The April 2008 Constituent Assembly elections delivered a convincing victory for the Maoist UCPN(M) but left them short of an outright majority. The major parties promised to continue working together but the Nepali Congress (NC), which came second, refused to join the government that was eventually installed in August 2008.
For all its weaknesses, this government is Nepal’s best hope, but it is not living up to its promise and there are no viable alternatives.
- There can be no functional government without the Maoists, let alone any hope of proceeding with a constitution-writing process in which they can wield a blocking vote.
- There is little unity of effort among the governing coalition partners. Opponents of the Maoists talk up the prospects of a government collapse. Conservative wings of other parties have been reinvigorated.
- The Maoists have made a greater effort to change than other parties but their democratic transformation is far from complete. Maoist commitment to political pluralism is still highly questionable.
- The democratic alternatives to the Maoists are alarmingly weak. The other parties suffer from exclusiveness and weakened support and offer no fresh options to complete the peace process.
- The state of public security and law and order is worrying. Although killings, explosions and shutdowns have all decreased since peaks in the first half of 2008, there is little sense of stability.
The report makes the following recommendations:
- All political actors party to the peace and constitutional processes should re-establish a basic consensus on completing the peace process and ensure the constitutional process moves forward.
- The Government of Nepal should focus on peace process implementation, set clear peace process and development priorities, deliver tangible improvements in the weak law and order situation, and improve the management of state security forces.
- The Unified Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) should start the process of restoring confidence by unequivocally reaffirming the ceasefire and CPA conditions on ceasing all political violence and the commitment to political pluralism.
- The major established parliamentary parties should make efforts to win back popular legitimacy through activities such as reforming party structures and improving the representation of women.
- The international community, particularly India, China, the US, EU, UN and other donors, should recognise that the peace process is fragile and incomplete, and maintain a commitment to high-level political engagement.