Preventive diplomacy, conflict prevention and other forms of preventive action intended to stop armed conflicts before they escalate to widespread violence are the subject of intense debate. And despite their elevation to a norm in the United Nations, challenges include coordination and quality control, nuanced decentralisation of preventive action, and availability of evidence. Recommendations include: align conflict analyses to local understandings and terminology; begin a dialogue on coordination of preventive action; and research drivers of peace separately from drivers of violence.
Drawing from recent high-level consultations on the topic, the article identifies recurrent obstacles to preventive action:
- Coordination and quality control: While the diversity and heterogeneity of new players may offer some exciting innovation, it also produces challenges of cooperation and mutual awareness. A common complaint among officials, civil society representatives, religious leaders and activists in countries affected by chronic collective violence is of being invited to an endless array of workshops, courses, and conflict resolution forums. The highly variable quality of the conflict prevention ‘community’ has also generated negative feedback.
- Decentralisation of preventive action: Progress in decentralising preventive action to the regional and local levels has yielded successes but also undermined the likelihood that conflict prevention and preventive diplomacy will occur. For example, regional institutions tend to primarily concerned with the interests of their member governments and not necessarily non-state actors.
- The evidence base for preventive action: This remains weak and unlikely to improve in the short term.
However, stakeholders that are fragmented can be better coordinated. The presumption that regional or national entities are inherently better at conflict prevention than international actors can be nuanced, and analyses of past experience and political arrangements can show where a regional or sub-regional body may be effective and where either international or local strategies may be warranted. Specific recommendations include the following: