Recent studies in general are positive regarding the effectiveness of US counterinsurgency programs in Iraq. The right mix of coercion, ethnic strategy, and public goods provision, it is argued, makes Iraqis less likely to rebel against the US army and the Iraqi government, thus reducing insurgent violence. In fact, the number of insurgent attacks dramatically declined shortly after the change in the counterinsurgency strategy in 2007.
How robust is the positive finding? A common assumption behind previous analyses is that insurgent attacks have a strong local root and is unlikely to be reproduced in other areas. Violation of this spatial independence assumption, however, can potentially bias towards the positive result.
Based on the novel spatial dynamic panel data (SDPD) model, this analysis shows that spatial dependence should be addressed and cannot be assumed away. Results based on the new model also reveal that, conditional upon other strategies, the effects of a counterinsurgency strategy vary considerably both in magnitude and direction, suggesting that some policy mixes could be counterproductive. Policy makers seeking to adopt similar strategies in Afghanistan should take the relocation into account in their policy evaluations.
Key findings:
- Previous sub-national analyses in counterinsurgency in Iraq usually make an implicit assumption that different units are independent. When the assumption is violated, the assessments could be biased towards the positive findings. This issue is more prevailing in sub-national analysis as the barriers to trans-administrative unit activities are often low. This study introduces a target selection approach to the insurgent mobility problem. While the net effect of counterinsurgency strategy is always context-dependent, this study discusses a number of factors relevant to the problem and a novel tool portable to similar kind of analyses.
- Applying the framework and method to the Iraqi data, I found evidence showing that spatial interdependence should be taken seriously in the assessment exercise. The effects of a counterinsurgency strategy could vary considerably across space when mixed with other strategies. As the effect is usually conditional on the use of other strategies, no single strategy is a panacea. This caveat is especially important as similar strategies have been adopted in Afghanistan.
- The findings here are not to suggest abandoning the strategy of the surge given the spillover effect in the short run; the costs may be a necessary one to enhance security in the country. The findings simply suggest that policy makers should take the spillover effect into account when devising their strategies. A more fruitful approach should be attentive to the human and geographical factors of the regions and their neighbourhoods. In general, a similar strategy in areas that disfavour violence substitution is more likely to be cost-efficient and effective, as it minimizes the harm due to the likely spillover effects.
- The current evaluation exercise is by no means perfect. Many qualitative studies inform us that local political context also plays an important role (e.g. Hagan et al. (2013); Long (2008)). Though some of the domestic effects are geographically limited in scope hence not likely to change the overall pattern and the argument regarding relocation and conditionality substantially, a more elaborate assessment is desirable when data of high resolution in both time and spatial dimensions are available, a task that could be challenging in a conflict-torn country. Given the scarcity of data and the research objective, which is to assess the sensitivity of previous findings to the spatial consideration, it is not possible to test which of the proposed factors are generally relevant in the target selection process, nor does it provide a complete theory in explaining the variations in the results; these tasks are possible only after an empirical pattern is described and confirmed. The contribution here is more on offering a framework, a tool, and providing new empirical findings based on improved data and method for further theorisation.
- The findings have important implications to the recent emerging conflict diffusion literature. A basic notion of the literature is that the spread of violence is not random and directionless (Midlarsky, Crenshaw, and Yoshida, 1980). Gleditsch (2007), Buhaug and Gleditsch (2008) and Cederman et al. (2013) have advanced the research agenda and asked why conflicts cluster in space.
- Is the clustering a result of diffusion or attribute clustering? What are the underlying mechanisms of diffusion? More recently, Checkel (2013) and Wood (2013) address the heterogeneity of diffusion mechanisms. The proposed target selection framework could be understood as a novel mechanism through which violence travels across spaces. The framework of this study integrates agency with structural characteristics: violence could be a deliberate strategy of insurgents subject to geographical constraints, be the strategy a result of the counterinsurgency efforts or not. Thus, the framework avoids the dichotomy that overwhelmingly stresses on either agency or geography.
- In short, the findings in this study should bring political scientists’ attention to the mobility issue and provide insights and tools that help both academicians and policy makers better address] and conceptualize the target selection problem of insurgents.