Does climate change increase the risk of violent conflict? This paper from Political Geography integrates three bodies of research on the vulnerability of local places and social groups to climate change, livelihoods and violent conflict, and the role of the state in development and peacemaking. Climate change reduces access to natural resources and undermines state capacity to help people sustain livelihoods. These impacts may in certain circumstances increase the risk of violent conflict, but further investigation is needed.
Climate change poses risks to human security both through changes in mean conditions and the severity and frequency of natural disasters. Impacts on human systems are worrying given the rate of change and the fact that climatic variations have triggered large-scale social disruptions in the past. Yet environmental change does not undermine human security in isolation from social factors such as poverty, state support, access to economic opportunity and social cohesion. These factors determine people’s capacity to adapt to climate change. The way climate change undermines human security varies across the world.
There are four key factors affecting processes by which climate change could exacerbate violent conflict. These are:
- Vulnerable livelihoods: Impacts on livelihoods will be more significant for those with high resource dependency and in socially and environmentally marginalised areas.
- Poverty: Climate change may directly increase poverty by undermining access to natural resources. It may indirectly increase poverty through its effect on resource sectors and the ability of governments to provide social safety nets.
- Weak states: The impacts of climate change are likely to increase the costs of providing public infrastructure and services and may decrease government revenue. Climate change may decrease the ability of states to create opportunities and provide freedoms for citizens.
- Migration: People whose livelihoods are undermined by climate change may migrate, though climate change is unlikely to be the only ‘push’ factor. Large-scale migrations may increase the risk of conflict in host communities.
While climate change poses clear threats, more research is needed on how it may undermine human security. Current understanding is not sufficient for designing adaptation strategies. There is a need for systematic, comparative and cross-scale research on the connections between climate change, human security and violence:
- Further research should assess the vulnerability of people’s livelihoods to climate change and inform policies to reduce it. Such studies are not new, but there are enough low-income, resource dependent communities for them to be more numerous.
- Policy agendas are shaped through science-policy interactions. Powerful developed countries may understand vulnerability to climate change in developing countries as a risk to their national security. Their responses may then be weighted towards defence spending and border maintenance rather than reduction of emissions or efforts to foster adaptation.
- The consequences of livelihood insecurity need to be examined, since these seem to increase violent conflict. Risk factors include opportunities to gain income elsewhere, history of violence, ineffective justice systems, availability of weapons, ineffective welfare systems and poor access to education and health care.
- The role of institutions appears critical for successful adaptation to climate change. Factors in institutional effectiveness include legitimacy, responsiveness, core values, commitment, independence from political pressures, management and transparency.
- The role of the state is critical in reducing vulnerability to climate change and the risk of violent conflict. Further research should enhance understanding of the challenges climate change poses to states, including their capacity to protect livelihoods and sustain peace.
