This paper presents an experimental evaluation of the effect of a large conditional cash transfer (CCT) program—the Philippines’ Pantawid Pamilya—on the intensity of violence and local insurgent influence in civil conflict. In the last decade CCT programs have become one of the most popular tools for delivering development aid and a large literature documents their positive impacts on the wellbeing of the poor. However, little is known about the relationship between CCT programs and civil conflict. The study provides experimental evidence of how CCT programs can affect civil conflict. It finds that cash transfers caused a substantial decrease in conflict-related incidents in treatment villages relative to control villages. Using unique data on local insurgent influence, we also find that the program significantly reduced insurgent influence in treated villages.
The analysis exploits a randomized experiment conducted by the World Bank starting in 2009. In this experiment, 130 villages in 8 municipalities of the Philippines were randomly divided into a treatment group and a control group. The treatment group began receiving transfers through the program in 2009, while the control group did not receive transfers until 2011. Using a unique village-level dataset on conflict incidents from the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP)—the most comprehensive data source on conflict in the Philippines—the researchers estimate the causal effect of CCTs on conflict by comparing the intensity of violence in treatment and control villages in 2009 and 2010.
Key Findings:
- The Pantawid Pamilya program substantially reduced the number of conflict-related incidents in the program area.
- The program also reduced insurgent influence in treated villages. This is important because a program that reduces violence by weakening insurgent influence is likely to have more beneficial long-term effects.
- The mechanism by which aid is disbursed can determine its impact on civil conflict. Going forward, this suggests opportunities for future research on how and under what conditions various means of targeting and delivering aid can reduce rather than exacerbate the risk violent conflict.
