Do international organisations have concrete plans, strategies and mechanisms for conflict prevention? If so, are they being used and what are the results? This Occasional Paper from Clingendael, the Netherlands Institute of International Relations, addresses the issue of “early warning” mechanisms in eight international security institutions. It assesses what kind of developments are treated as signs of potential disputes, and examines the practical application of “early warning” mechanisms.
Early warning is an instrument of conflict prevention which collects and analyses data to provide information for political decision-makers. It has a short-term objective – intervention and response – and does not concentrate on background variables. Sustainable development, coupled with early warning, may help to achieve the longer term objective of creating an environment where violent conflicts are unlikely to occur. There is thus a need to reassess the role of international organisations, as well as concepts like “international community” and “indivisibility of peace”.
The key factor in terms of international concern with conflict is political will. The concept of early warning as used in practice bears little relation to the theoretical construct. In many organisations, early warning strategies are incomplete, ill-defined or non-existent.
- The effectiveness of the Organisation on Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) is restricted by the need for consensus and by limited resources. Early warning instruments’ contribution to European security is more symbolic than concrete.
- Despite the United Nations’ (UN) emphasis on fact-finding, there remains a disjointed approach to collecting and processing data. Preventative diplomacy remains an elusive topic. The UN has tended to intervene in conflicts too late.
- The security concept of the Organisation of American States (OAS) is characterised by tension due to US intervention in Latin American affairs. Sub-regional organisations may offer a more effective means of settling or preventing conflict.
- Conflict prevention systems are a long way off in African organisations. There is a trend towards swifter responses to conflicts, although external logistical and financial assistance remains essential to this.
- The Association of South-east Asian Nations (ASEAN) has increased security and stability and created a sub-regional order. The “ASEAN way” of avoiding conflicts is characterised by informality and consensus based on traditions of non-interference and national sovereignty.
International organisations cannot cope with the responsibilities they inherited after the post cold-war withdrawal of superpower support to conflict zones. The implications of this are:
- International organisations can boast very little action with regard to the prevention of conflicts, although the OSCE comes closest.
- International organisations tend to have divergent views on what kinds of developments constitute signals of potential conflict and there are limited parallels in between the different organisations in terms of institutional approaches.
- Lack of leadership (in the cases of the Organisation of African Unity (OAU) and the OSCE) and excessive leadership (in the case of the OAS) represent serious weaknesses.
- An OSCE-type structure is unrealistic in the African and American contexts. Far-reaching reform seems unlikely in ASEAN due to the preference for informal, bi-lateral consultation.
- It remains debatable whether any reforms professed by the UN would improve the preventative approach to conflicts. Nevertheless, UN early warning projects do have relevance for fact-finding.
- The functioning of international organisations should be analysed in terms of not just normative but also factual judgements.
