Does the presence of international peacekeepers contribute to more durable peace in the aftermath of civil war than when they are absent? This article analyses all civil conflicts between 1944 and 1997. Controlling as much as possible for the degree of difficulty of a particular case, it is clear that intervention by the international community does help to maintain peace. Across the various types of peacekeeping missions, the presence of peacekeepers reduces the risk of another war by over 55 per cent.
Scholarly work on peacekeeping has mainly focused on comparative studies of peacekeeping cases and operations. However, in order to accurately assess whether peacekeeping makes a difference to the duration of peace (the time between the end of fighting and the start of another war, if any, between the same parties), there is a need to examine the aftermath of all civil wars, rather than simply those in which peacekeepers were deployed. The debate is also constrained by a lack of rigorous empirical analysis.
Of the 115 civil wars examined, international personnel were sent to keep the peace after 41. Overall, the presence of peacekeepers reduces the risk of another war by more than 55 per cent.
- Traditional peacekeeping missions and observer missions have been the most successful, reducing the risk of war by about 86 per cent and 81 per cent, respectively. Multidimensional peacekeeping appears to cut the risk of war by more than half, and enforcement missions by just under half.
- Taken individually, only one of the peacekeeping hazard ratios is statistically significant, but jointly they pass the significance test convincingly.
- Peace tends to be quite stable after civil wars that end in a decisive victory for either side.
- Peace is also more likely after very long wars and in states with higher levels of economic development.
- The more deadly the civil war, the harder it is to maintain peace. A high death toll apparently fuels animosity and makes reconciliation harder.
- Consent-based peacekeepers tend to be sent to more difficult cases and are more likely to be deployed where there is a stalemate between the government and rebel forces.
The presence of international peacekeepers is not a guarantee of lasting success, but it does improve the chances of more durable peace in the aftermath of civil war. Despite a number of serious peacekeeping failures in the early and mid-1990s, peacekeeping remains an effective tool in the management of civil conflict.
