What factors lead to civil war? Is there a link between civil conflicts and ethnicity? In contrast to traditional views, this paper from Stanford University argues that the current prevalence of civil wars results from the steady accumulation of protracted crises from the 1950s and 1960s onwards, rather than recent changes in the post-Cold War world system. Moreover, issues such as poverty, political instability and weak states contribute to the outbreak of civil wars as they favour rebel recruitment and lead to corrupt counterinsurgency practices.
Between 1945 and 1999, there were over 127 civil wars – leading to a significantly higher number of deaths and refugee flows than interstate conflicts. However, civil wars have been given less attention than interstate wars. Ethnicity, political grievances and the end of the Cold War have historically been cited as factors leading to civil wars. However, civil conflict can be viewed in terms of insurgency that is characterised by small, lightly armed groups engaged in guerilla warfare from rural bases.
- Civil conflict has emerged as a result of long-term trends and as an accumulation of protracted tensions, rather than sudden changes in the post-Cold War international system.
- The existence of poverty, weak states, political instability and large populations leads to conditions that favour insurgency and recruitment to rebel groups.
- Fragile states are unable or unwilling to control internal conflicts due to weak local policing and corrupt counterinsurgency practices.
- Ethnic and religious diversity does not necessarily lead to civil conflict in a country, despite the fact that rebel groups are often mobilised along ethnic lines during warfare.
- There is little evidence that the absence of democracy and respect for civil liberties and minority groups leads to the outbreak of civil war.
Further research is needed on the factors that lead to internal conflicts. Donors and policy-makers should reconsider traditional assumptions about the factors that lead to civil wars. This should include:
- Understanding the structural conditions that give rise to insurgency such as weak states and high levels of poverty.
- Promoting democracy and respect for ethnic and religious minorities as legitimate foreign policy goals, but at the same time, recognising that there may not be an immediate link between these objectives and the prevention of civil wars.
- Funding anti-corruption measures in developing countries and encouraging legal accountability within the military and police.
- Making aid to governments fighting civil wars conditional on guarantees that counterinsurgency practices will discourage the recruitment of militias by rebel groups.
- Monitoring the counterinsurgency policies of developing countries. Countries which perpetuate civil war should be viewed as candidates for ‘neo-trusteeship’ under the United Nations or regional organisations such as NATO and the European Union.
- Reviewing existing trusteeships such as Bosnia, Kosovo and East Timor to improve internal coordination among the diverse actors involved in these operations.
