Why are there fewer conflicts today? This paper, published by the International Peace Academy, reviews global trends in political violence since the end of World War II and examines the decline in conflict numbers following the end of the Cold War. The single most compelling explanation for the decline in conflict is the upsurge in peacemaking and peacebuilding activities begun in the early 1990s by international institutions, donor governments and civil society organisations.
The incidence of violent conflict has fallen rapidly following the end of the Cold War; falling by some 40% between 1992 and 2005. There has also been a decline in the number of genocides, wars between countries and military coups. This global pattern has gone largely unnoticed in the media, much of the policy community and also parts of the research community.
During the Cold War, armed conflict included wars between government and non-state actors and extra-state wars of liberation from colonial rule. The overwhelming majority of post-Cold War armed conflicts have been intrastate, or civil, wars.
Wars have become less deadly. The average number of battle deaths per conflict per year was 38,000 in 1950 and 700 in 2005 – a 98% decrease. However, post-Cold War civilian deaths, including humanitarian workers, account for 90% of total deaths, compared with 50% in World War II.
International terrorism has altered the post-Cold War conflict landscape. After an increase in international terrorism from 1968-1991 and a subsequent decline by the end of the 1990s, there were four times as many terrorist incidents in 2004 as there were in 2000. Global incidence of domestic terrorism also increased dramatically over the same period.
There are three major reasons for the post-Cold War decline in armed conflict:
- The end of colonialism removed a major source of political violence from the international system. Anti-colonial struggles were replaced in some cases by struggles for control of the new post-colonial states, but many of these had been resolved by the end of the 1980s.
- The end of the Cold War removed another source of conflict – ideological rivalry – from the international system. Washington and Moscow stopped fuelling proxy wars in the developing world; the threat of war between major powers vanished.
- The single most compelling explanation for the decline in combat is the substantial increase in missions of preventive diplomacy, peacemaking and peace operations. The success rate of many of these missions has not been impressive; however, even low success rates are an improvement over the Cold War years when such activities were notable for their absence.
However, there are still substantial reasons for concern about current conflict around the world:
- A total of 56 conflicts are currently active.
- With the exception of Sub-Sahara Africa, all other regions saw an increase in conflict between 2002 and 2005.
- A significant number of current peace agreements are certain to fail.
- “Root cause” drivers of conflict, such as weak state capacity and extreme social and economic inequality, remain unchanged or are worsening.
- Peacemaking and peacekeeping operations remain under-resourced and risk being overstretched.
- Despite the decline in armed conflict since the end of the Cold War, there is no room for complacency; it could be reversed in the near future.
