Is there a link between horizontal inequalities (inequalities between identity groups, HIs) and violent conflict? This working paper for the Centre for Research on Inequality, Human Security and Ethnicity (CRISE) represents the first effort at systematically measuring this link. Using Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) from 55 developing countries, it finds there is a positive relationship. The findings suggest that what is required to secure peace in developing countries is a politically and economically inclusive government.
This paper addresses the interplay between socioeconomic and identity-related factors in civil conflict. Inequalities that coincide with identity cleavages (such as ethnicity, religion or regional affiliation) may enhance group grievances and thus facilitate mobilisation for conflict. Also, horizontal inequalities may especially be conflict provoking under certain political conditions. There has been little study of the role of political institutions (such as regime type and electoral system) in the conflict potential of horizontal inequalities. It is expected, for instance, that horizontal inequalities may be particularly explosive in democratic and semi-democratic regimes because the relatively deprived groups have both a strong motive and an opportunity for violent mobilisation.
DHSs from 55 developing countries in the period 1986-2003 have been used to calculate welfare inequalities between ethnic, religious and regional groups based on indicators such as household assets and education levels. They show that:
- Socioeconomic horizontal inequalities seem to be positively related with conflict for all the three kinds of group identifiers suggested (ethnic, religious and regional groups);
- The relationship between regional (educational) HIs and conflict seems to be affected by regime type and electoral system, as well as the level of political exclusion in society;
- Horizontal inequalities seem to be particularly conflict provoking in democratic regimes with inclusive electoral systems. This is of course not to say that democracy and/or political inclusiveness as such breed conflict. However, countries with sharp socioeconomic HIs, despite democratic rule and a seemingly politically inclusive system, may be particularly at risk of conflict; and
- There is a strong interaction effect between regional asset HI and the level of de facto political exclusion of certain minorities.
The search for the underlying causes of civil wars is an ongoing one, and few definitive answers can be expected. Yet, because of the heavy costs and human sufferings that are continuously imposed by civil conflicts, it is important to take some action on the basis of our current knowledge.
- The main policy implication that can be drawn from the results reported in this paper is the importance of addressing horizontal inequalities. Political institutions are not sufficient to ensure peace.
- The combination of two factors seems to be of utmost importance in mitigating conflict. The first factor is the establishment of politically inclusive government which incorporates representatives from all the major identity groups at the political level.
- The second factor is the realisation of a social system which widely spreads the benefits of progress, providing socioeconomic growth among all the significant regional, religious and ethnic groups in society. In other words, what seems to be required in order to ensure peace in developing countries is the combination of politically and economically inclusive government.
