How can the UK improve its strategic approach to countries at risk of instability? This paper from the Prime Minister’s Strategy Unit outlines the challenges and risks of instability. It identifies practical steps the UK Government can take to improve its prevention and response strategies in partnership with other international actors. It argues that more effective action will require common or aligned strategic approaches across all countries and key international agencies.
Instability is likely to be part of the international landscape for the foreseeable future. The cost of crisis is very high, especially in human terms, and insecurity around the globe also affects our own security and prosperity. The international community therefore needs to reduce the risks of instability, to prevent crises. Although it is common wisdom that prevention is better than cure, the international community has found it difficult to translate this into practice. Understanding the causes and dynamics of instability means looking at three sets of factors: (1) A country’s internal capacity and resilience, (2) Underlying factors associated with instability, and (3) External stabilisers.
Preventing crises means effectively managing risks. The focus on lack of political will has obscured what can be done at earlier stages to reduce risks, such as investment in country and international capacity. In addition:
- Increased commitment and coherence of action is needed. A sophisticated understanding of country situations; an increased scale of engagement; sustained support; and coherent engagement across different types of actors are all necessary.
- Investment is needed to build country capacity, and the roles of all key international and domestic actors need to be set out and aligned behind a long-term agenda. It is especially important that incentives of domestic governing and other elites be aligned with stability.
- Response to crisis should be improved by increasing multilateral capacities, tackling conflict funding and improving peace support operations. International responsibility should be increased in tackling drivers of instability such as HIV/AIDS, nuclear proliferation and global warming.
- A more effective approach to prevention will require a coherent government and international system-wide response.
- A wide range of international actors have roles to play, and these roles should be defined by their respective capability and willingness to be involved.
There are a number of concrete steps the UK government should undertake:
- It should continue developing the Instability Framework with a view to disseminating it amongst partners. It should also be coherent in its policies towards countries at risk of instability, making use of the ‘Partnerships for Stability’.
- It should, with its partners, develop better methods for understanding internal political dynamics; enhance support for the European Neighbourhood Policy; and work with partners to better support the AU.
- Creating a positive international environment is crucial: The UK should continue its advocacy of the International Finance Facility; expand work with the EU and IFIs to ensure the impact of trade reform on stability; and continue to work towards a more comprehensive approach to HIV/AIDS.
- It should increase support for UN efforts to set out norms to ensure that foreign direct investment contributes to stability; work with partners to tackle climate change; and ensure that policies on nuclear energy and proliferation are aligned with stability concerns.
- Crisis response will still be crucial: The UK should make the case for a substantial increase in deployable troops for Peace Support Operations; strengthen work with partners to improve early warning analysis and continue work on a cross-departmental Generic Planning Framework to align activities.