What is the relationship between media programming, political discussion and conflict-related attitudes? This paper tests the hypothesis that balanced and inclusive media-induced discussion can be a positive force in mitigating attitudes associated with conflict. It explores how discussions programmes – where a diverse audience, representing the whole of society, is engaged in fair and balanced debate – can stimulate both private/interpersonal discussion and public discussion in either a community setting or one hosted by local government. The results reveal a rich but complicated picture. It recommends further research areas to develop a more robust evidence base.
This paper aims to bridge the gap between literature recognising the role of knowledge as an important driver of attitudes that foster co-operation, literature that highlights the role of discussion within personal networks, and literature that focuses on the negative influence media can have on attitudes and behaviours in fragile settings. It uses regression analysis of quantitative data from nationally representative surveys collected for BBC Media Action programming in Kenya and Nigeria on the relationship between exposure and private discussions, and the relationship between exposure and public discussion. It should be understood as a preliminary attempt to test assumptions, identify relevant controls and begin to consider models for a theory of change about the relationship between media and conflict. The paper does not claim causality as the the data cannot tell us the order in which events occurred.
While it is too soon to suggest that media can affect attitudes towards violence at scale, the paper highlights the importance of discussion as a predicator of conflict-related attitudes:
- Audiences exposed to BBC Media’s Action’s debate programmes were more likely to report higher levels of private political discussion than those who were not. Although it is less consistently significant in Nigeria than it is in Kenya.
- Evidence from Kenya suggests that exposure to debate-style programming is potentially linked to public political discussion, but that this relationship is likely to be mediated through other variables such as private political discussion.
- In both cases, both private and public discussion are strongly associated with individual attitudes towards conflict. In particular, private discussion and participation in a collective effort are meaningfully associated with conflict-related attitudes. The direction of these associations are not uniform and how types of discussions interact also differs.
The relationship between discussions and attitudes is a complex one – not all discussion is good at all times. Further research is required to understand the conditions under which media can support positive dimensions of discussions and ameliorate the negative ones in order to guide media support. This research should seek to better:
- understand the different forms that private and public political discussion can take;
- assess more carefully the qualitative nature of the discussion;
- consider the sequencing of these effects, especially how private and public discussion interact with one another;
- acknowledge the role that the institutional and cultural environment has on shaping attitudes towards both inclusion and violence.
