Is the Muslim population of Kenya becoming more radicalised? What is the potential for the development of Islamic terrorism and increased religious conflict in the country? This paper by the Danish Institute for International Studies examines the historical and current situation of the significant Muslim minority in Kenya. It argues that although there is a potential for Islamic revivalism, there is little evidence for growing radicalisation or pro-terrorist attitudes among the Muslim population of Kenya. The key issue in addressing Muslim grievances, and preventing any possible radicalisation, is the problem of the political, social and economic underdevelopment of the Muslim-populated provinces.
There is little substantiation of claims that Kenyan Muslims are becoming more receptive to radical views, including terrorism. However various factors do exist which could potentially contribute to a sense of marginalisation among the Muslim population.
- Muslim-dominated regions tend to be socially and economically underdeveloped relative to the rest of the country. While such imbalance is not necessarily a result of deliberate government discrimination, it may nevertheless fuel Muslim resentment and oppositional activities.
- Despite the inclusion of Muslims in most Kenyan governments, there is a perception that Muslim interests are under-represented politically. Religious parties are prohibited from registering for election in Kenya. Nevertheless, groups such as the Islam Party of Kenya are influential and have engendered more radicalised splinter organisations.
- There have been several outbreaks of violent conflict between Muslims and the government or other parts of the population. However, these incidents seem to have been provoked by civil unrest, government repression and hooliganism, rather than organised radical movements.
- There is an increased international Islamic presence in Kenya, consisting of NGOs, charities and mosque construction, funded by Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states.
If the grievances of the Muslim population are insensitively handled, the threat of increased radicalisation and even terrorism in Kenya could become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Measures should be undertaken to address the real and perceived sources of economic, political and social inequality experienced by Kenyan Muslims.
- Suppressing Islamic movements and institutions will lead to frustration and will do nothing to address the root causes of Muslim discontent. Granting Muslim groups access to representative political power could be one way to proceed.
- Allowing Islamic parties to register for election is one option, but may exacerbate inter-religious resentment, especially if Christian parties are not afforded similar status.
- An alternative could be a form of power-sharing, allowing Muslim groups a share of power proportional with their share of the population. This would almost certainly entail conducting a new census.
- Provincial autonomy within a federalist framework could be a solution for the North Eastern province, where Somali Muslims represent a clear majority of the population.
- Concrete efforts need to be made to redress the social and economic imbalances that form the basis for feelings of marginalisation among Kenyan Muslims. This will include improving the provision of key public services such as education, healthcare and safe drinking water in Muslim-dominated regions.
