What is the key to successful conflict prevention? This book chapter argues that those involved in the prevention of conflict need to be aware of the political nature of the task and the complexities involved. It is vital that international agencies focus on supporting political processes of governance rather than any end state. They should avoid imposing generalised solutions on complex and unique realities.
The principles that should guide conflict prevention – human rights, security, respect for boundaries, human development, reconciliation – are numerous and sometimes contradictory, and each is difficult to realise fully. It is important not merely to prevent violence but to address the problems that provoke it. Otherwise, the peace may maintain existing power relations. The involvement and empowerment of local actors is vital not only because of their knowledge of local complexities but also because they are more likely to be accountable to the society in which they live than international actors.
Conflict prevention can be categorised into three types of action. Systemic prevention promotes policies that counteract ways in which global institutions promote or facilitate violence. Structural prevention reduces the risk of conflict by transforming social, economic, cultural or political sources of conflict. Operational prevention seeks to contain escalation sparked by leadership strategies or crises that act as accelerators or triggers of violence.
A regional conflict formation is a set of conflicts in nearby states that may have different origins and internal dynamics but become linked in a mutually reinforcing process. The longer conflicts persist the more they become linked to others in the region and display the following characteristics:
- State institutions may collapse or fall into political crisis. Borders then become porous, citizenship may become contested and administrative capacity may weaken.
- States may support armed groups in a nearby country for strategic, economic, ethnic or ideological reasons.
- Repressive rulers can manipulate the international community by playing off their roles in several conflicts against one another.
- Ethnic, religious and economic networks that cross borders may sustain transnational political actors. Such networks facilitate flows of people, trade and arms.
- Refugees from one country may become political actors in another.
- The weakening of administrative capacity and the mobilisation of transnational networks create conditions for a war economy based on looting and smuggling. The opportunity for profit perpetuates the network of weak states and conflicts.
A preventive approach to conflict requires strategies for entire regions that address links between conflicts at different stages of evolution:
- The intensity of conflicts and violence change over time; appropriate forms of preventive action depend on the level and history of violence.
- Prevention means being proactive at every stage and remaining alert to the dangers of escalation even when implementing peace agreements.
- Because the global environment affects all conflicts, prevention should target those areas that provoke conflict such as corruption or state disintegration.
