What is the key to the success of Tajikistan’s post-war stabilisation? This paper from Conflict, Security & Development assesses demobilisation, disarmament and reintegration (DDR) initiatives in Tajikistan. It argues Tajikistan’s post-war stability is in part attributable to how the country ignored conventional emphases on political liberalisation, demobilisation and disarmament. President Rakhmonov found a way to move Tajikistan forward that matched the local context. This highlights dangers of applying universal DDR strategies in highly specific local conditions.
Reintegration was prioritised over demobilisation and disarmament in Tajikistan’s peace process. Inadequate disarmament rates were disregarded but integration of opposition fighters into military and law enforcement units was relatively swift. This created high levels of trust among the former fighters and commanders. The quick provision of incentives, such as comprehensive amnesties and the offer of government positions and economic assets created stakes in the peace process for a number of actors. Transitional justice was largely overlooked. Strong normative pressure, both among the civilian population and law enforcement that peace should involve collection of illegally owned weapons has created a society that has remarkably low levels of violence. This contrasts with other countries that have experienced an end to formal fighting but where violence continues.
Tajikistan can be seen to be unusual in the context of DDR, for a number of reasons, chiefly in its remarkable levels of peace and stability.
- DDR programmes were accompanied by a peace settlement that required tough compromises from the two conflicting parties.
- Reintegration was emphasised over demobilisation and disarmament. Whole units of anti-government forces were included into state structures, while opposition leaders got 30 per cent of the top government posts.
- There was some disarmament of fighters but large weapons stocks remained with commanders and little pressure was put on them to surrender their weapons.
- The peace settlement included a set of measures that helped deter spoilers. Some spoilers emerged due to: being denied a share of assets and political influence; the criminal nature of some of the groups born of the war, and; foreign involvement.
Rather than the liberal democratic script for DDR, two different perspectives on the stabilisation process are more relevant: a political economy approach and an approach that stresses the perseverance of Soviet norms.
- President Rakhmonov’s decision to seek compromise and to suspend transitional justice bought time and helped reinstate the conditions needed for a resurrection of the Tajik state.
- Elections were overshadowed by more informal power and patronage strategies.
- Loyalty and trust was bought by creating patronage networks that centred on distribution of material goods and state protection for nominally illegal activities. Former civil war actors from both sides formed the central elements of these patronage networks.
- Subsequent policies of reducing political pluralism, eliminating political opponents and concentrating power in the office of the president produced stability.
- Despite the crackdowns and deviations from democratic principles, the President enjoys popularity and legitimacy.
- However, the state’s tacit acceptance of a range of criminal activities could jeopardise the foundations of the state as well as prospects for economic development.
