How can donors best work with the political, economic and social power structures in Ethiopia to reduce rural poverty? What are the existing power structures in Ethiopia? This analysis of power structures was prepared for the Swedish International Development Co-operation Agency (Sida) as a background study for a country strategy paper. Ethiopia is potentially beginning to emerge from the calamitous period following the Ethio-Eritrean war. This period was characterised by a severe loss of political and economic confidence. With weak opposition parties, and strong central domination by the state it seems that the major change agents within Ethiopia will continue to be the leaders of the ruling party, the Ethiopian People’s Democratic Revolutionary Front (EPDRF). The coming period will show whether the EPDRF has been able to achieve stability and cohesion, and whether it will use this stability for authoritarian or inclusive ends. The paper is highly relevant for governmental, multilateral and non-governmental donors.
Internal political events in 2001/2 are likely to mark a change in the methods and objectives of the EPDRF. There is rhetoric of ‘Tehadso’ (renewal), but it is unclear which of a spectrum of positive and negative futures Ethiopia will select. These changes may present opportunities for increased political competition and pluralism.
- Ethiopian society is vertical with an unequal distribution of power. Lines between state and party are blurred, and the ruling party dominates, although recently there have been some attempt to review this relationship.
- In 1991, the EPDRF started three processes of reform, they were devolution into a language group based federation, a reform of the civil service and a gradual liberalisation of the economy.
- Three tendencies restrict devolution to the National Regional States (NRS), a centrally controlled budget, constitutional requirements that NRS policy conform to federal norms and weak NRS capacity.
- Recently there is an increased emphasis on the ‘weredas’ (district administration, nominally 100,000 population) with an assignment of personnel and block grants.
- Legal opposition to the government is weak and subject to repression. Elections are not fair and donor engagement in the democratic process is superficial.
- The federal arrangement was instituted to contain conflict but ethnicity has now become politicised which has increased the potential for conflict for resources.
The purpose of this report is not to make recommendations on how donors can influence structures and relations of power. However, donors should improve the political analysis and knowledge base on which their decision making is based. Concrete recommendations are as follows:
- Donors should have an explicit discussion with the Ethiopian government about the structures of power that each would like to see established. If there is no understanding of common ground and differences, frustration and confusion will follow.
- Any pressure on the government for accelerated democratisation should be realistic and constructive.
- Improve co-ordination of the knowledge base of the donor group, for example information sharing and translation of relevant documents.
- Focus on the ‘wereda’ level, as this is likely to be the most important locus of analysis in the immediate future.
