Climate change and exposure to ‘natural’ disasters threaten to derail international efforts to eradicate poverty by 2030. As temperatures warm, many of the world’s poorest and most vulnerable citizens will face the growing risks linked to more intense or lengthy droughts, extreme rainfall and flooding and severe heat waves – risks that threaten lives and livelihoods, as well as the hard-won gains made on poverty in recent decades. The impoverishing impact of both climate change and natural disasters is so grave that the UN Secretary General’s High Level Panel (HLP) on Post-2015 Development Goals has suggested a target to be added to the first proposed post-2015 development goal on ending poverty: ‘to build resilience and reduce the number of deaths caused by disasters’.
This report examines the relationship between disasters and poverty. It concludes that, without concerted action, there could be up to 325 million extremely poor people living in the 49 countries most exposed to the full range of natural hazards and climate extremes in 2030. It argues that if the international community is serious about eradicating poverty by 2030, it must address the issues covered in this report and put DRM at the heart of poverty eradication efforts. Without this, the target of ending poverty may not be within reach.
When combining all of the data sets, the following findings emerge:
- Extreme weather linked to climate change is increasing and will likely cause more disasters. Such disasters, especially those linked to drought, can be the most important cause of impoverishment, cancelling progress on poverty reduction.
- Up to 325 million extremely poor people will be living in the 49 most hazard-prone countries in 2030, the majority in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The 11 countries most at risk of disaster-induced poverty are Bangladesh, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Kenya, Madagascar, Nepal, Nigeria, Pakistan, South Sudan, Sudan, and Uganda.
- Disaster risk management should be a key component of poverty reduction efforts, focusing on protecting livelihoods as well as saving lives. There is a need to identify and then act where the poor and disaster risks are most concentrated. The post-2015 development goals must include targets on disasters and climate change, recognising the threat they pose to the headline goal of eradicating extreme poverty by 2030.
- By 2030, 11 countries will have high numbers of people in poverty, high multi-hazard exposure and inadequate capacity to minimise the impacts: Bangladesh, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Kenya, Madagascar, Nepal, Nigeria, Pakistan, South Sudan,10 Sudan and Uganda.
- Another 10 countries have high proportions of people in poverty, high multi-hazard exposure and inadequate capacity to minimise the impacts: Benin, Central African Republic, Chad, Gambia, Guinea Bissau, Haiti, Liberia, Mali,North Korea and Zimbabwe. Niger, Somalia, and Yemen could also feature in this list. While their total exposure to hazards, other than drought, is relatively low, these are countries that have high levels of poverty and low levels of DRM capacity.
- Afghanistan, Cameroon, Myanmar and Papua New Guinea also endure high exposure to hazard and moderate poverty (with at least 10% of their populations and/or 1 million people under the $1.25 per day poverty line) and limited DRM capacity.
- India represents a special case. It has the highest numbers of people who are still likely to be living in poverty in 2030 and some of the highest exposure to hazards, yet does have the central capacity to manage disaster risk. Given its size India likely needs to be treated as a cluster of separate sub-national entities, with some states causing considerable concern, including Assam, Madhya Pradesh, Odisha, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal.
The report recommends that a goal on ending poverty is coupled with targets on tackling key impoverishment factors, where natural disasters are a significant component and that these factors become the cornerstones of international and national efforts to reduce poverty overall.
Accordingly, the post-2015 framework should monitor progress beyond the $1.25 per day poverty threshold to monitor higher thresholds, such as $4 per day, beyond which the risk of falling into poverty would be greatly reduced. Identifying such thresholds requires further research. Within a development context focused on eradicating poverty, international efforts to reduce disaster risk should concentrate on the countries at greatest risk of disaster-induced impoverishment and target specific sub-national trends. DRM efforts should focus on saving livelihoods as well as lives, giving equal weight to social protection and asset-building approaches alongside early warning systems.
Disaster resilience efforts should also have clear strategies to reduce the poverty and build the assets of those affected by disasters, engaging people in long-term livelihood programmes. Beyond political commitment, this will take upfront and recurrent international investment in DRM until national revenues and individuals can adequately take on the challenge of providing protection.
However, this is currently an underfunded area with just 40 cents in every $100 of official development assistance (ODA) spent on reducing disaster risk. $9 in every $10 dollars spent on disasters is spent after the disaster has struck. Over the last 20 years, the countries highlighted in this report as being at greatest threat of disaster-induced impoverishment in 2030 have seen an average of just $2million of ODA spent on reducing disaster risk each year. This needs to change, with more money targeted to maximising disaster resilience and poverty reduction at the same time.