This paper finds that Africa’s youth tend to vote less and express a lower level of partisanship (attachment to a particular party) than older citizens. This is consistent with findings from other regions. However, Africa’s youth are not more likely to protest than older citizens: claims that disillusioned African youth will foment instability do not yet appear warranted in many of the region’s electoral democracies. Findings also raise the questions of whether the electoral process is a legitimate means of conveying young people’s concerns and whether political parties are accurately representing younger citizens’ interests.
The study combines country-level variables for 19 of Africa’s more democratic countries with individual-level public opinion data from Afrobarometer survey data. It examines voter turnout in the last national elections, partisanship, and participation in protests, comparing youth (those aged 18-30) with older people.
Most African countries are grappling with a demographic ‘youth bulge’: the median age of Africans is 19 years, compared with 42 years for Europeans, and the youth currently comprise 70 per cent of Africa’s population. Youth unemployment remains high in Africa, and approximately 72 per cent of Africa’s youth live on less than two dollars a day.
Most discussions of the youth bulge revolve around pessimistic and extreme scenarios, such as political violence. These outcomes tend to be associated with autocratic regimes. This paper focuses on more typical modes of political participation in Africa’s more democratic regimes.
Youth political participation in Africa, particularly in urban areas, is broadly similar to that in other regions. In comparison with older people, Africa’s youth vote less and are more likely to demonstrate either no partisanship or an attachment to opposition parties rather than to incumbent parties. Further:
- Unlike older voters, the youth tend to vote less the longer an incumbent party has been in office.
- Poor incumbent performance on job creation increases the likelihood of the youth expressing either no partisanship or an affinity with the opposition. Dissatisfaction with government’s handling of job creation also has the largest substantive impact for the youth group with respect to their support for the opposition. For the non-youth group, dissatisfaction with a broader range of issues is associated with partisanship.
- The likelihood of Africa’s youth being involved in protests is not significantly different to their older counterparts. This suggests that while they are less engaged in elections and party politics, they are not channelling discontent into extra-institutional participation.
- Higher levels of education and economic deprivation, as well as lack of satisfaction with democracy, increase the likelihood that the youth will protest. These factors do not affect older people’s protest activities.
These findings question the legitimacy of the electoral process as a meaningful way of conveying the preferences of Africa’s youth. Other implications are that:
- Despite Africa’s youth bulge, the majority of the region’s presidents are over 60. Some African scholars believe this prevents the concerns of youth being brought into the political arena and advocate lowering the voting age to 16. The findings here suggest this would not necessarily result in higher youth participation in elections.
- Residency in urban areas demonstrated a similar pattern to youth effects across two of the three outcome variables. Given that Africa is urbanising rapidly and the youth bulge will remain prominent in years to come, voter abstention and low partisanship might grow.
- Given existing levels of unemployment and poverty among Africa’s youth, job creation could remain highly relevant to their political participation.
