Transnational Organized Crime in Eastern Africa: A Threat Assessment

Transnational organized crime in Eastern Africa is a product of both illicit markets that span continents and an underlying weakness in the rule of law. This report finds that:

• Due to conflict and poverty, Eastern Africa produces a large and vulnerable stream of smuggled migrants, who are abused and exploited at multiple stages of their journey.
• More than 100,000 people paid smugglers to transport them across the Gulf of Aden or Red Sea to Yemen in 2012, generating an income for the boatmen of over US$15 million.
• Around 80,000 of these migrants attempted to cross Yemen to Saudi Arabia, but many of these were waylaid by smugglers and subjected to a range of abuses, includ­ing confinement, beatings, extortion and rape.
• Despite the large numbers, the flow of migrants is con­centrated, with most embarking from two port areas (Obock, Djibouti and Boosaaso, Somalia) where inter­ventions could be addressed.
• Heroin has been trafficked to and through Eastern Af­rica since at least the 1980s, but a series of recent large seizures suggests that this flow has increased.
• Some air couriering has been noted, but it appears the great bulk of the heroin is being transported by dhow from the Makran Coast, an area that spans Iran and Pakistan.
• The local market is estimated to consume at least 2.5 tons of pure heroin per year, worth some US$160 mil­lion in local markets. The volumes trafficked to the region appear to be much larger, as much as 22 tons, suggesting substantial transhipment. Eastern Africa is a known transit area for heroin destined for South Africa and West Africa.
• Given the prevalence of blood borne disease and known injection drug use, the spread of heroin throughout the region must be carefully monitored and addressed.
• Recent research indicates that the rate of poaching in Eastern Africa has increased, rising to levels that could threaten the local elephant population.
• The bulk of the large ivory shipments from Africa to Asia appears to pass through the container ports of Ken­ya and the United Republic of Tanzania, where inter­ventions could be addressed.
• It is estimated that between 5,600 and 15,400 elephants are poached in Eastern Africa annually, producing be­tween 56 and 154 metric tons of illicit ivory, of which two-thirds (37 tons) is destined for Asia, worth around US$30 million in 2011.
• Somali pirates brought in an estimated US$150 million in 2011, which is equivalent to almost 15% of Somalia’s GDP.
• Effective intervention has forced pirates to range ever further from the coast to attain their targets: in 2005, the average successful pirate attack was 109 km from the Somali coast; in 2012, it was 746 km. Ships have also become more effective at defending themselves.
• The increase in risk associated with protracted expedi­tions and international countermeasures have contribut­ed to a decline in piracy: in April of 2009 alone, pirates hijacked 16 ships, but after April 2011, they averaged less than one per month. There were no successful hi­jackings for ransom in the Somali area of operations in the first half of 2013.