Adapting to context

Conflict and security

What is the relationship between climate change and conflict?

There is widespread concern that climate change has the potential to undermine human security and incite conflict. However, evidence of any direct causal relationship between climate change and security is inconsistent. Some qualitative material and single-case analyses infer correlations between resource scarcity and increased violence (Buhaug et al., 2008). However, statistical data and quantitative models fail to find robust associations between these variables (Buhaug et al., 2008; Bernauer et al., 2011; Brown et al., 2007). The most recent IPCC report (2014) argues that violent conflict increases vulnerability to climate change by harming key components of adaptation, such as social capital, livelihood opportunities, and infrastructure.

Some experts argue that climate change generates new conflicts and security challenges by worsening resource scarcities, intensifying natural disasters, and undermining state capacity to provide people with services and opportunities (Lind et al., 2010; Buhaug et al., 2008). Environmentally-induced migration may cause or worsen conflict ‒ increasing competition over resources, inciting ethnic tensions, and destabilising neighbouring areas, especially where political institutions are weak, or conflict resolution mechanisms are deficient (Reuveny, 2007; Bernauer et al., 2011). Examples in FAO’s Climate-smart agriculture sourcebook (2013) show how conflicts over diminishing resources cut across a range of sectors, livelihood types and resource users, such as pastoralists in Kenya, small-scale shrimp producers versus fishers in Nicaragua, and livestock grazers versus conservationists in Tibet. Landscape management approaches have proven effective in managing resource conflict among stakeholders with competing interests (FAO, 2013).

Contextual factors such as governance, institutions and economic conditions are likely to determine whether climate-related events generate conflict (Lind et al., 2010). Climate change may not increase the risk of conflict in all societies (Buhaug et al., 2008). Economic and political contexts influence people’s capacity to adapt to climate change, and levels of violence (Bernauer et al., 2011).

Lind, J., Ibrahim, M., & Harris, K. (2010). Climate change and conflict: Moving beyond the impasse (IDS In Focus Policy Briefing 15). Brighton: Institute of Development Studies.
This briefing summarises two opposing views on the impact of climate change on violent conflict ‒ first that climate change causes conflict, and second that politics and institutions cause conflict. It calls for a focus on the economic and political structures that make certain groups and individuals vulnerable over time, rather than on external pressures and shocks as sources of vulnerability.

Reuveny, R. (2007). Climate change-induced migration and violent conflict. Political Geography, 26(6), 656-673.
What are the links between climate-induced migration and violent conflict? Based on qualitative research, this article suggests that climate change can contribute to conflict in areas receiving migrants through: competition for resources; ethnic tensions; distrust; and other conditions such as underdeveloped economies or reliance on the environment for survival. Episodes of environmental migration have contributed to conflict in some cases due to competition over resources. Recommendations to mitigate these negative effects include reducing dependence on the environment for livelihoods and protecting vulnerable areas against sea level rise.

Bernauer, T., Koubil, V., & Böhmelt, T. (2011). Environmental changes and violent conflict (Foresight Project: Migration and Global Environmental Change, SR 12). London: Government Office for Science.
This paper identifies mixed evidence on how environmental stress has contributed to conflict. Drawing on qualitative studies, findings show that environmental stress (e.g. drought) has contributed to conflict. However, quantitative analyses – particularly large-N studies – do not find a significant association between conflict and environmental change in a larger population of countries and locations, over a longer period of time. The impact of environmental changes on violent conflict is likely to depend on the economic and political conditions that influence the capacity for adaptation, such as economic resources or technological capabilities.

UNEP, UN Women, PBSO, & UNDP. (2013). Women and natural resources: Unlocking the peacebuilding potential. Nairobi and New York: UNEP, UN Women, PBSO & UNDP.
What is the relationship between women and natural resources in conflict-affected settings? Women are the primary providers of water, food and energy in rural settings. They are often highly dependent on natural resources for their livelihoods, and are therefore particularly susceptible to changes in the quality and availability of these resources during and after conflict. Lack of access to land can expose women to greater physical and livelihood risk. Natural resource management can enhance women’s engagement and empowerment in peacebuilding processes.

Approaches to address climate-related security threats

Despite lack of robust evidence of direct causal links between climate change and security, experts urge that climate-related factors should be considered when designing development and peacebuilding interventions.

Blondel, A. (2012). Climate change fuelling resource-based conflicts in the Asia-Pacific (Asia-Pacific Human Development Report Background Papers Series 2012/12). New York: UNDP.
What is the role of climate change in resource-based conflict in the Asia-Pacific? This paper argues that environmental changes are likely to act as ‘threat multipliers’ for conflict, particularly in areas that already experience security and development challenges. Recommendations for curbing the effects of climate change include prioritising equitable natural resource management and developing regional mechanisms to share knowledge on the effects of climate change.

Buhaug, H., Gleditsch, N. P., & Theisen, O. M. (2008). Implications of climate change for armed conflict. Paper presented at the workshop on Social Development Dimensions of Climate Change, World Bank, Washington, DC.
This paper finds that climate change could cause conflict and social instability by: increasing resource scarcity; intensifying natural disasters; and bringing about a sea level rise. However, the occurrence of violence depends on contextual factors. While some single-case analyses suggest resource scarcity contributes to organised violence, statistics show no robust correlation between resource scarcity and increased conflict. Recommendations for targeting future development and peacebuilding efforts include investing in rigorous, systematic research, promoting systematic environmental accounting, targeting conflict-prone areas vulnerable to adverse climate change effects, and using development policies for peacebuilding.

UNEP. (2009). From conflict to peacebuilding: The role of natural resources and the environment. Nairobi: United Nations Environment Programme.
Early findings from an analysis of intrastate conflicts over the past sixty years indicate that ‘conflicts associated with natural resources are twice as likely to relapse into conflict in the first five years’ (p.5). Further, ‘since 1990, at least eighteen violent conflicts have been fuelled by the exploitation of natural resources’ (p.8). Yet fewer than a quarter of peace negotiations for conflicts linked to natural resources have addressed resource management mechanisms. This study argues that the recognition that environmental issues can contribute to violent conflict highlights their potential to also contribute to cooperation and peacebuilding. Integrating the environment and natural resources into peacebuilding strategies is a security imperative.

Urban settings

How will climate change affect urban communities?

The urban poor are on the front line of climate change (Baker, 2012). Cities are often ill-equipped to deal with environmental changes and, given their high population densities and infrastructure, have substantial exposure to natural hazards. Factors that contribute to cities’ vulnerability and increased exposure include inadequate infrastructure, poor urban design and planning, and proximity to the coast. The rapid and often unplanned expansion of cities (e.g. sprawling informal settlement) has increased the exposure of people and economic assets to the effects of climate change, which include more frequent floods, landslides, heat waves and drought (Sattherthwaite et al., 2007). Vulnerability is also directly related to where poor people live in cities – typically in overcrowded, unsafe or exposed areas such as slum dwellings, where there is little access to basic services (Baker, 2012; Institute for Women’s Policy Research, 2015). The most recent IPCC (2014) evidence anticipates that urban communities are likely to experience increased ill-health and disrupted livelihoods due to environmental changes.

Sattherthwaite, D., Huq, S., Pelling, M., Reid, H., & Romero Lankao, P. (2007). Adapting to climate change in urban areas: The possibilities and constraints in low- and middle-income nations (Human Settlements Discussion Paper Series: Climate Change and Cities 1). London: IIED.
A third of the world’s people live in urban areas in low- and middle-income countries. Most of these cities and towns are unprepared for adaptation to the increased natural hazards (e.g. flooding or landslides) associated with climate change. Many have very limited infrastructure, poor services, and weak local governments; and many residents live in insecure housing. However, there are substantial synergies between successful adaptation to climate change and successful local development. Gender issues are also noted as influencing risk, vulnerability and resilience. This report highlights the scale of the adaptation challenge in Africa, Asia and Latin America, and discusses how local innovation in adaptation can be encouraged and financed.

Johannessen, L. M. (2013). Briefing Paper: Cities in developing countries and their development in response to climate change and resource scarcity. Evidence on Demand.
Climate change is just one of many serious environmental issues affecting cities. Vulnerability is influenced by ineffective land planning and underinvestment in infrastructure, low quality housing, insufficient information and resources, and gender issues. Despite the many challenges, urban resilience can be built by mainstreaming climate change into urban planning and infrastructure development, upgrading informal settlements, building flood control for vulnerable areas, and providing significant financial support at the local level to accelerate adaptation.

Building resilience of urban communities – approaches to intervention

Climate change provides impetus to improve living conditions among the urban poor. Many experts call for cities to give attention to climate-related risks in planning, management and service delivery (Johannessen, 2013; Dickson et al., 2012). Case studies show that understanding hazards and risks is a necessary first step in developing adaptation, disaster risk reduction and mitigation policies. Tools for identifying the nature of risk, characteristics of hazards, and the most vulnerable communities and individuals include urban risk assessments and the asset-based framework (Baker, 2012; Dickson et al., 2012; Moser & Satterthwaite, 2008). Suggested approaches for urban adaptation include climate proofing infrastructure (e.g. building flood controls), improving informal settlements, supporting renewable energy, and working in partnership with local communities (IIED, n. d.; Johannessen, 2013). Successful adaptation requires local knowledge, innovation, and equitable and inclusive approaches that harness the full potential of men and women (Moser & Satterthwaite, 2008; UN-Habitat, 2013). Accessible communication is essential to bridge knowledge gaps between national and local levels ‒ stakeholder workshops have been useful for discussing key issues, for example (Baker, 2012).

Dickson, E., Baker, J.,Hoornweg, D., & Tiwari, A. (2012). Urban risk assessments: Understanding disaster and climate risk in cities (Urban Development Series). Washington, DC: The World Bank.
This report presents the Urban Risk Assessment (URA), a flexible framework that enables project and city managers to understand and prepare to manage climate-related risks. Case studies describe the piloting of the methodology in four cities: Mexico City, Jakarta, Dar es Salaam, and São Paulo. The URA focuses on hazard impact assessment, institutional assessment and socioeconomic assessment. Cities urgently need to include such assessments in their planning, management, and delivery of services.

UN-Habitat. (2011). Cities and climate change: Global report on human settlements 2011. London: Earthscan.
Climate change will present unique challenges for urban areas. In addition to physical challenges (e.g. increasing heat waves and higher sea levels), some cities may face risks in providing basic services. Climate change will affect water supply, physical infrastructure, transport, industrial production, and energy provision. Impacts will be particularly severe in low-elevation coastal zones, where many of the world’s largest cities are located. Drawing from a global review of climate change mitigation and adaptation measures, this report advocates an integrated, multi-partner approach for climate change action in urban areas. This includes addressing both short- and longer-term issues, and introducing new approaches that support action at different scales and across sectors.

IIED. (n. d.). Climate change and the urban poor: Risk and resilience in 15 of the world’s most vulnerable cities. London: IIED.
This report outlines lessons learnt regarding the principal effects of climate change in fifteen cities in Africa and Asia, based on case studies and city profiles. Coastal cities are susceptible to a rise in sea level, dryland cities are vulnerable to drought, and high-altitude cities are affected by changing rainfall patterns. In all cities, poverty and rapid urbanisation increase vulnerability. Urban authorities can build resilience by investing in climate-proof infrastructure, ensuring regulatory frameworks are effective, and working in partnership with their low-income populations to support community adaptation.

Moser, C., & Satterthwaite, D. (2008). Towards pro-poor adaptation to climate change in the urban centres of low- and middle-income countries (Human Settlements Discussion Paper Series. Climate Change and Cities 3). London: IIED.
How can adaptation to climate change in urban areas be pro-poor and enhance adaptation capacity? This paper introduces an asset-based framework to assess the vulnerability of low-income communities, households, and individuals in urban areas. It highlights measures needed to address aspects of risk and vulnerability to extreme weather events. These include safer cities, protective infrastructure and better quality buildings. The framework helps to identify synergies between poverty reduction and resilience to climate change, and clarifies how vulnerability and risk are influenced by income level, age and gender. Strengthening the asset base of households and communities does not just improve adaptive capacity: it also helps develop more competent, accountable local government.

Coastal zones

Climate change effects on coastal zones and adaptation responses

Coastal zones are already experiencing adverse effects of climate change and will be increasingly exposed to risk in the coming decades. Without adaptation, sea level rise and climate change are likely to make some islands and low-lying areas uninhabitable. Both biophysical and socioeconomic factors underlie climate-related risks. Human-induced pressures such as land use and high population density (e.g. in Asian mega deltas) are found to contribute to climate change effects (Harvey, 2006). Management of coastal zones in an integrated manner is therefore vital.

Coastal communities engaged in fisheries and the aquatic sector are among the most vulnerable socioeconomic groups to climate change. Sufficient guidance exists to assure sustainability of the sector, but implementation of principles and interventions lags behind (FAO, 2013). Drawing from global experience, lessons for coastal adaptation include: early warning communication and response systems; hazard awareness education; and robust vulnerability assessments leading to prioritisation of disaster prevention and response interventions (e.g. capacity development and strengthening of governance and institutions) (Adams & Castro, 2013; Bene et al., 2015). Gender considerations are crucial in coastal zone assessments and adaptation: women and men have different knowledge of coastal systems and different responsibilities defined by gender norms (e.g. women dominate close to shore and inland fishing and processing and men in off-shore fishing ) (UNDP & GWA, 2006).

Harvey, N. (Ed.) (2006). Global Change and Integrated Coastal Management: The Asia-Pacific Region. Dordrecht: APN/Springer.
What are the impacts of global change on coastal environments in the Asia-Pacific? The impacts of global warming and accelerated sea level rise are compounded by unsustainable use of coastal resources, population increases and urbanisation pressure, and coastal impacts from poor catchment management. This book identifies strategies to tackle such issues, including Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM).

Adams, P., & Castro, J. (2013). Embedding climate change resilience in coastal city planning: Early lessons from Cartagena de Indias, Colombia (Inside Stories on climate compatible development).
How can coastal cities integrate planning for climate change with economic growth strategies and poverty reduction? This brief reports on the development of adaptation guidelines for Cartagena, Colombia, through a participatory planning process involving scientists, officials, politicians and citizens. An extensive vulnerability assessment highlighted risks including flooding, coastal erosion, and increased prevalence of disease. The guidelines highlight priority actions, and emphasise the importance of land-use planning and zoning policies as an entry point for adaptation. Lessons from the process include the importance of using climate science to help decision-makers weigh the costs of adaptation with the costs of inaction.

Bene, C., Devereux, S., & Roelen, K. (2015). Social protection and sustainable natural resource management: Initial findings and good practices from small-scale fisheries (FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Circular No. 1106). Rome: FAO.
This publication explores how social protection and other measures can reduce vulnerability and strengthen resilience among households and communities involved in small-scale fisheries. Communities that depend on fisheries are among the socio-economic groups most exposed to natural disasters, which occur mostly in South and Southeast Asia where the impact of climate change is expected to be greatest. While exposure to risks is high, ability to cope and recover is low. Vulnerability to climate-related risk among fisherfolk depends on social, economic and environmental factors such as the nature of the resource, methods of catch, market risks, and political and security risks. Recommendations include: assessments of risks; policy review (proposing new options as needed); flexible management and governance systems that can adjust to changing conditions; and adequate compensation when protective measures such as quotas and closed seasons are introduced.

UNDP, & GWA. (2006). Resource guide: Mainstreaming gender in water management. UNDP/GWA.
This resource guide assists practitioners in mainstreaming gender in 13 sub-sectors to facilitate access for specific purposes and water uses. For example, it covers water-related disasters, coastal zone management, fisheries, sanitation and hygiene, water supply and agriculture.