AIDS has become the leading cause of death in sub-Saharan Africa. Its impact stretches across the whole of society, but is particularly strong in the education sector, affecting both providers and users of schools. This article, published in the journal AIDS, measures and analyses the economic impact of HIV/AIDS on the supply of education in Zambia.
In southern and eastern Africa, the number of teachers dying from the disease or taking HIV-related sick leave is restricting countries’ ability to provide education. Thus, they are likely to find it harder to reach the goal of universal education. At the same time, the rising demand for education, due to increased fertility rates, is being tempered as children and their families face illness and death. Zambia’s government began to realise the gravity of the impact of HIV/AIDS on education in the late 1990s. Teacher deaths rose, and there were reports of teaching time lost due to illness. This has financial repercussions for the Ministry of Education – which the study captures by using mathematical models and sensitivity analyses. It concludes that the epidemic has significant implications for resource allocation in Zambia’s education sector.
The economic impact analysis focuses on primary school education. It estimates only the ‘passive’ cost of HIV/AIDS for the ministry, and does not include active responses to the epidemic. It considers the costs stemming from the lost productivity of teachers absent due to HIV illness, the replacement of those who die, and funeral expenses. Key findings are that:
- The estimated costs to the ministry and its donor programme of HIV/AIDS on the supply of primary education are US$1.3-3.1 million in 1999, and $10.6-41.3 million over the period 1999-2010.
- The best and worse-case scenarios produce widely different estimates. Most of the difference is caused by varying assumptions about HIV incidence among teachers.
- Over the next decade, the largest impact is likely to come from teacher absenteeism (71 per cent). Most of the remaining impact is likely to be caused by the loss of trained teachers (22 per cent).
- The total estimated cost of HIV/AIDS in 1999 represents only 2.5 per cent of the ministry’s budget. However, the effect on teacher training represents 26 per cent of funds spent on primary-level teacher training.
The financial impact is substantial with regard to teacher training. Expenditure in this area will have to rise by a quarter to meet the government’s target of providing education to all. There are a number of other factors that should be considered:
- The government and donors cover only half the cost of teacher training. The rest is met partly by students, whose ability to pay may be affected by HIV/AIDS.
- If the scope of the analysis were widened to include costs incurred by teachers from HIV/AIDS, the overall cost would rise sharply.
- There are extra costs to the government that are harder to estimate, including lower productivity of HIV-positive teachers due to psychological trauma, and absenteeism related to illness and death in teachers’ families.
- An active response to HIV/AIDS, including counselling and providing anti-retroviral drugs to teachers, would require extra spending. The cost would be spread across government and civil society, but would be significant.
- Such a response is recommended, however, as the benefits would be large and widespread.
