What is conflict analysis and why is it important? This chapter from the resource pack Conflict Sensitive Approaches to Development, Humanitarian Assistance and Peace Building places conflict analysis at the foundation of a conflict sensitive approach. Without understanding the context in which interventions are situated, organisations implementing them may unintentionally fuel conflict. While conflicts are too complex for a single process to do them justice, key features of analysis are conflict profile, causes, actors and dynamics.
Conflict sensitivity is about understanding the context of interventions and acting upon this understanding to maximise positive impacts. Conflict analysis informs conflict sensitive programming, with particular relevance to the interaction between intervention and context. It helps define new interventions and conflict-sensitise existing interventions at the planning stage. It informs project set-up and decision making at the implementation stage. At the monitoring and evaluation stage, conflict analysis helps measure the interaction of interventions and the conflict dynamics in which they are situated.
There are key questions within each area of analysis:
- Profile: What is the political, economic and socio-cultural context? What are the emergent issues? What conflict affected areas can be situated within the context? Is there a history of conflict?
- Causes: What are the structural causes of conflict? What can be considered proximate causes of conflict? What triggers could contribute to the outbreak, escalation or prolonging of conflict? What factors can contribute to peace?
- Actors: Who are the main actors? What are their interests, goals, positions, capacities and relationships? What capacities for peace can be identified? What actors can be identified as spoilers and why?
- Dynamics: What are the current conflict trends? What are the windows of opportunity? What scenarios can be developed from the analysis of the conflict profile, causes and actors?
Recommendations for good practice are based on consultations in Kenya, Uganda and Sri Lanka:
- Building capacity for conflict analysis may involve: Helping staff better understand the context in which they work, prioritising and integrating conflict analysis into established procedures and budgeting for conflict analysis.
- Conflict analysis can be undertaken for a number of purposes: Promoting participation, developing a strategy for engagement, decisions on further project activities and project monitoring. These determine who conducts the analysis: Members of the community, local project staff, national or international staff.
- When planning to use a specific conflict analysis framework, consider strengths and weaknesses. Tools are not a substitute for detailed local knowledge and should not stifle creative thinking. Organisations can customise tools to specific needs, objectives and capacities.
- Gather information from a wide range of sources and listen to many different actors to broaden understanding of context. Not all information will be available, reliable and unbiased. Research methods such as triangulation aim to reduce such limitations.
- Conflict analysis itself needs to be conflict sensitive. It is good practice to get stakeholders on board early and avoid antagonising potential spoilers.
