What are the links between demographic factors, economic and environmental pressures, and conflict in West Africa? This paper examines West African conflicts, focusing on the 1990s, and argues that demographic, economic and environmental factors need to be given greater consideration in attempts to promote peace.
Many West African countries have had to grapple with the mutually reinforcing destabilising factors of economic down-turns, population changes (particularly ‘youth bulges’ and migration), and social tensions resulting from resource scarcity. However, so far little research has attempted to test the argument that a combination of such factors has contributed to conflict in West Africa.
Developing countries with high young adult populations seem to be more susceptible to conflict. In the 1990s, the demographic factors that were most closely associated with the likelihood of civil conflict around the world were a high proportion of young adults (aged 15 to 29 years), and a rapidly growing urban population. In the conflicts in Sierra Leone, Liberia and Côte d’Ivoire, young people comprised 95 per cent of the fighting forces.
However, other West African countries with equally high young adult populations, such as Ghana, managed to avoid conflict. It therefore seems that leadership, mobilisation and the political exploitation of young people have contributed to the role of the youth ‘bulge’ in West African conflicts.
Migration can add to social tensions. For example, in 1998, migrants made up over a quarter of Côte d’Ivoire’s population. This high proportion contributed to the rise of Ivorian nationalism that in turn was a factor in the country’s conflict.
Competition for environmental resources has generated tensions in West Africa between locals and migrants (sharing scarce arable or grazing lands, forests, or water). In addition:
- Environmental refugees add to migrant numbers, increasing pressure on resources.
- The over-exploitation of natural resources reduces the ability of rural economies to absorb available labour.
- Inter-state tensions have also been caused by the lack of coordination concerning scarce environmental resources. As an example of future concerns, the Niger river provides water for about ten countries and will create critical security issues should it begin to run dry.
- Conflict in West Africa has also caused environmental damage. For example, the breakdown of law and order associated with conflict often leaves protected areas vulnerable to over-exploitation.
It is important to undertake research to try to further unpack the influence of demographic, economic and environmental factors on conflict in West Africa. It is also important to consider the following policy options:
- Factors that have the capacity to impact on the demographic composition of states – such as HIV/AIDS, which increases the proportion of the young population – should be urgently addressed. The fight against HIV/AIDs should be securitised nationally and sub-regionally.
- Policies should be crafted to reduce young people’s vulnerability to political manipulation by those who may want to exploit their situation to foment unrest. Youth development initiatives should be included in demobilisation, disarmament and reintegration programmes.
- Environmental protection policies should be an important part of national and sub-regional security strategies. ECOWAS should establish clear guidelines for inter-state collaboration in the use of trans-boundary resources such as water.
