Will Tanzania become a battleground in what Samuel Huntington called ‘The Clash of Civilisations’? Tanzania has large populations of Christians and Muslims. It is an impoverished country, and this places a strain on national social cohesion. However, this paper, for Third World Quarterly, argues that, although tensions are on the rise, a combination of cross-cutting cleavages, relative parity of group strength and size, and intra-group conflict should ensure that this does not develop into open conflict. This argument is contextualised within a theoretical continuum of primordial and instrumental views of identity.
Scholars have used a range of approaches in considering the concept of identity. Primodialism argues that identity groups are based on common biological descent and emphasises the inherent self-interest of the collective. Instrumentalism, on the other hand, views identity groups as largely constructed, and deployed to advance elite interests, often political and economic advantage.
In Tanzania, despite diverse identity groupings, no one ethnic or religious identity has served as a major societal dividing line. However, the question of whether the country would polarise along religious lines emerged in the 1990s.
- A number of incidents have occurred over the past 10 years that have resulted in violence or heightened tensions between Muslims and Christians.
- There has also been a recent revival of Islam as a political force in Tanzania which challenges the ruling party and secularist principles of the state.
- This has occurred within a domestic context where the opposition Civic United Front accuse the ruling party, Chama Cha Mapinduzi, of rigging elections in order to prevent them from taking power in Zanzibar.
- This domestic conflict takes place in a global context where the USA and many of its Western allies interpret organised political activity by Muslims as terrorist activity. In contrast, in Tanzania some Muslims view the USA, Western capitalism and Christianity as a challenge to Islam.
- Religion, when linked to other identities such as class, can deepen divisions. However, while efforts are being made in this area in Tanzania, they have not yet gained widespread acceptance.
The case of Tanzania demonstrates that the mobilisation of identity groups, specifically those defined in terms of religion, is a complicated process that is problematic for the linear analyses of the instrumentalist-primordialist continuum
- The rise of Islam presents as a political force presents, on the surface, a bipolar struggle between the followers of Islam and Christianity. However, both religious communities are composed of a number of competing groups, often divided along pro and anti-government lines, which cut across religious affiliation.
- Due to the relatively equal sizes of the Christian and Muslim populations, there is a realisation among both opposition and ruling party leaders that using religious appeals at a national level is likely to cause a strong counter-response and mobilisation in the non-targeted group.
- The divisions between and within the Christian and Muslim communities have rendered group solidarity a virtual impossibility. This creates a disincentive for leaders to manipulate religion for political ends, or for primordial tendencies of religious affiliation to affect the political process.
