This report provides a detailed political economy analysis of northern Afghanistan – the provinces of Faryab, Jowzjan, Sar-i Pul, Balkh and Samangan. It notes the competition between two key figures, Atta and Dostum, who each lead a network of allied strongmen spread across the northern region.
The importance of Afghanistan’s northern region stems from the economic role of the city of Mazar-i Sharif, but also from political factors: the north is the only region where the potential for a regionalist threat to the central government appears to have been in existence throughout the post-2001 period. This is largely due to the emergence of an oligopoly of power in 2002 in the north, taking the shape of competition for power between Atta and Dostum.
While Atta’s network has been steady in recent years, Dostum has been enjoying resurgence from late 2011 onwards. As of mid-2012, there seemed little prospect for either of them to gain exclusive control over the region. There was also little sign of the central government having the potential to consolidate power in the north. Increasingly, the policy debate in Afghanistan is shifting towards how to work with local and regional powerbrokers.
