After experiencing a twin crisis of separatist rebellion and a military coup in 2012, there were serious concerns about the future prospects of democracy in Mali. Would the short, but brutal, experience of authoritarian rule and a separatist struggle make the return to democracy possible in the short to medium term? Would the country rediscover its position as one of Africa’s promising democracies?
Results from a December 2013 Afrobarometer survey suggest that Mali’s short-lived return to authoritarianism has contributed to only a slight increase in public clamor for democracy. Support for democracy has increased especially among groups that bore the brunt of the recent crisis, in the North of the country and among Internally Displaced People. However, this is offset by relatively low levels of support for democracy and rejection of non democratic alternatives among southerners. The 2013 presidential and legislative elections have further helped to renew confidence in state institutions, as demonstrated by increased trust in key public bodies and increased belief that the new crop of public officials are less prone to corruption. However, given past experience, it is uncertain if this can be sustained.
Key Findings:
- Malians’ demand for democracy in 2013 remains low compared with the average level for 34 African countries in 2012. Only 38% both support democracy and reject authoritarian alternatives compared to 45% elsewhere on the continent.
- Malians’ demand for, and their perceived supply of democracy have both recently risen. Demand for democracy has increased to 38% in December 2013 from 32% in 2012, while perceived supply has doubled from 24% in 2012 to 49% in 2013.
- Large majorities of Malians continue to reject one-man and one party rule. However, there is more acceptance of military rule, as barely half of citizens (56%) reject the military option.
- Because demand for democracy is much lower than perceived supply, Malians may be willing to accept a surplus of elite authority. Further democratic reforms are thus unlikely to emanate from the grassroots, but are rather dependent on the goodwill of the authorities.
- The groups that bore the brunt of the recent rebellion and occupation (Northerners and internally displaced people) reject military rule at higher rates than do residents of the southern regions and Non-IDPs. 74% of northerners and 71% of IDPs reject military rule compared with rejection rates of 54% among southerners and 55% among people who have not been displaced.
- Malians have retained faith in elections despite the recent crisis: 70% report that they voted in the 2013 presidential elections compared to 66% in the 2007 elections. There do not appear to have been major voting obstacles among northerners, who actually report to have voted in higher numbers than southerners in both the presidential and legislative elections.
- Overall, 86% said that they did not fear becoming a victim of violence or political intimidation during the 2013 election campaigns. More than nine in ten (93%) people said the 2013 presidential elections were completely free and fair or free and fair but with only minor problems.
- Malians now express greater public trust in political institutions and increased confidence of reduced corruption in government, perhaps because of the return of a democratically elected government.
