This paper explores how rural agricultural livelihoods in Ethiopia may be impacted by potential climate changes. It then considers the consequences and opportunities arising from this, focusing on how social protection may support the poorest and most vulnerable in adapting to the changing climate. Using a livelihoods framework, the paper draws upon a case study of Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Programme as well as a Household Economy Analysis (HEA).
Key Findings:
- The current social protection system is strongly linked to current livelihoods and, at present, seems to be reasonably effective in protecting its beneficiaries from destitution and preventing a further fall into poverty. However, livelihoods are already sustaining shocks that are making promotion into more sustainable livelihoods difficult.
- There may be increasing levels of physical and economic vulnerability due to changes in climate—both long-term trends and an increase in severity and frequency of climatic events. This could result in a depletion of the asset base, which is vital for coping in sub-optimal weather years. There may be rising numbers of food insecure households and increasing numbers of families depending on unsustainable livelihoods. Results indicate increasing numbers of households dependent on unviable agricultural livelihoods, which will lead to dramatic increases in households highly vulnerable to even small shocks.
- Vulnerable populations – in many senses including groups with little social capital, unviable livelihoods, the food insecure and those in specific regions which are high risk due to changes in weather patterns – will become increasingly vulnerable if structures are not put in place to proactively address these challenges.
Recommendations:
- The social protection agenda helps guide changes for this future work, focusing on decreasing the vulnerability of many levels and forms in the context of a climate that – without proactive thinking and adaptation measures – may only contribute to increasing vulnerability. Regardless of the potential constraints of individual conceptual frameworks, when complementary approaches are brought together they provide a much stronger vision of the consequences and potential opportunities to mitigate the negative impacts of a changing climate.
- A change in perspective from the highest levels of government and donor organisations, down to the household level, will be vital for the country to adapt to the coming changes.
- Ethiopian policy makers’ broad vision of how development is pursued nationally may not reflect the reality faced by millions of poor people. This applies both to the time frames under which planning is undertaken, and the policies that are pursued. A vision that extends beyond the PRSP will be critical for rooting the five-year plan in long-term strategies that are sensitive to the coming changes in environment. This will draw out questions regarding whether or not the current PRSP – reliant on the success of the agricultural sector – is relevant to the needs of the population, and the poorest in particular.
