Which policies to promote sustainable peace-building and socio-economic development are needed in different types of post-conflict environment? This paper, from the Centre for Research on Inequality, Human Security and Ethnicity, offers a typology of post-conflict environments, suggesting that policy choice should be informed by three key variables: the state of economic development; the presence of high-value natural resources; and the existence of sharp horizontal inequalities. Four enabling conditions are also important in determining policy options and effectiveness – the state of security, the commitments of the international community to the country, state capacity and the inclusivity of government.
The majority of ‘post-conflict’ countries are among the poorer and less developed ones. Increasing attention is therefore being paid to the connections between sustainable peace-building and socioeconomic development within a post-conflict environment. Post-conflict countries differ from each other in many important respects and therefore require different policies; a one-size-fits all approach is unlikely to work. While each situation is unique, it is helpful to identify key dimensions of difference.
‘Post-conflict’ situations rarely have clear start and end points, and countries can be seen as lying along a conflict–peace continuum, on which they may sometimes move backwards as well as forwards. From the perspective of policies towards post-conflict economic recovery, it is never too early to start – indeed, as far as possible policies should be undertaken even during conflict, which may help reduce the socio-economic costs of conflict and contribute to bringing the conflict to an end.
Economic characteristics and enabling conditions are of critical importance in determining what post-conflict policies are possible and their likely effectiveness.
- Poverty and lack of opportunity: Low-income countries are likely to be weak on human resources, to have few productive opportunities for former soldiers and others, and to have weak bureaucratic capacity. Such countries are likely to be highly aid dependent; and have a higher risk of slipping back into civil war. Policies need to target agriculture and the informal sector to reach the majority of the population.
- High-value natural resources: Appropriate taxation and use of the revenue is needed to ensure that these resources support reconstruction rather than fostering horizontal inequalities and provoking further conflict. They make diversification of the economy more difficult, and special exchange rate and industrial policies may be needed to counter this.
- High horizontal inequalities: Action to reduce sharp horizontal inequalities is essential to reduce the risk of relapse into conflict. Those designing post-conflict policies need to find out whether HIs were an important cause of conflict in a country, and include policies to correct them where they were of significance.
- There are four important sets of enabling conditions which will determine how far normal economic activities can resume: the security situation; international commitment to the country (to provide people to enforce the peace, aid for reconstruction and development, and debt relief); the capacity of the state to keep law and order and deliver services; and the political inclusivity of the state, which will determine whether the government is likely to be committed to inclusive economic recovery policies.
