What are the reasons for South Africa’s successful transition to democracy? This paper by the London School of Economics (LSE) argues that there was a conjunction of favourable political, leadership, institutional, social and structural factors. But the study suggests that the notions of ‘success’ and ‘transition to democracy’ need to be qualified.
Revolutions always seem impossible before they happen and inevitable afterwards. The same is true of negotiated settlements to end civil wars. South Africans, now accustomed to constitutional rule, tend to regard their settlement as pre-ordained but this was certainly not the case. The negotiations were repeatedly wracked by crises of various kinds. Shortly before the first democratic election in 1994, the level of violence was so high and conservative parties were so opposed to the settlement that free and fair elections seemed improbable. At that time, the country appeared to be at the edge of an abyss.
- South Africa’s transition can be regarded as successful on the grounds that the country has moved unequivocally from a system of authoritarianism, minority rule and repression to one of democracy, freedom and respect for human rights and the rule of law.
- Nevertheless, South Africa is wracked by a number of severe social and economic problems: unemployment is as high as 40% and acute poverty afflicts the majority of citizens.
- Furthermore, there are gross inequalities in income and wealth. There is a high level of violent crime and there is a catastrophic HIV/AIDS pandemic.
- In assessing the South African experience, the notion of ‘transition to democracy’ needs to be analysed and qualified.
- Such transitions depend not merely on the holding of a free and fair election but also, and more importantly, on the consolidation of democracy. This can take five years, ten years or longer.
- A country can get stuck in the position of being only partially democratic and in worst-case scenarios it can revert to authoritarian rule or civil war.
The success of the transition in South Africa was due to a range of objective factors, but it was also a product of subjective factors relating to the behaviour of political parties and their leaders.
- In general, the resolution of conflict is unimaginable when thousands of people have been killed, the enemy is perceived as less than human and the conflict is viewed in zero-sum terms.
- The solution may be obvious in theory but seems impossible to achieve in practice.
- As with Israel-Palestine and other intractable conflicts, there is often a failure of political imagination that has to be overcome by courageous and creative leaders.
