This paper first presents a summary of recent conflict trends in Africa, largely drawing on data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project. Then, to provide a picture of the potential future impact of changes in Africa’s development and security prospects up to 2063 (a timeline that ties in with the African Union’s Agenda 2063 initiative).
The paper models the implications of three alternative futures for Africa. These are a ‘Base Case’ scenario (the current trajectory), an ‘African Renaissance’ scenario (a best-case scenario) and a ‘Politics of the Belly’ scenario (in which the trends analysed take a negative course).
Key findings:
- Conflict events and the associated number of fatalities in Africa are rising. The recent increase is largely due to five high-volume cases – Nigeria, South Sudan, Sudan, CAR and Somalia. Together, these countries account for over 75% of all conflict-related fatalities in Africa in 2014. The increases in conflict are therefore concentrated in a small number of countries. Most African states experience much lower incidences of fatalities per million people than experienced in these five countries.
- The three alternative futures for Africa: Base Case Scenario where Peace and security improves, but instability remains in a number of long-term fragile states; the politics of the belly where African governments do little to mitigate the deleterious impact of external developments on their economies and the African Renaissance scenario where improved governance, the impact of economic growth and policies aimed at including marginalised communities in public life erode potential support for terrorism in Africa.
- The dominant form of governance transition in Africa in recent decades is the resumption of the trend towards democratisation. Despite the expected advance of democracy in Africa, many states can be expected to experience the kind of instability associated with regime transition.
- The changes in Africa’s growth prospects during the last decade signify a structural transformation in the fortunes of the continent. Although the road ahead is long and will be characterised by many setbacks, over time economic growth is expected to translate into greater government security and capacity, and eventually greater inclusiveness.
- The single most important driver of stability is the strength and nature of governance. Building state capacity requires sustained and fast economic growth over many years, which is now on the cards. Likewise, sustainable economic growth requires government capacity and security.
- African leaders will have to remain committed to conflict prevention and management on the continent, and engage and develop structures such as the African Peace and Security Architecture to manage the inevitable crises.
- Africans are now taking the lead in making peace, but have limited ability to undertake expensive peace missions, such as those required in the DRC, CAR, Mali and Somalia. Peacekeeping and post-conflict reconstruction requires resources greater than those currently available in Africa.
- Although external partners can help build capacity, demonstrate best practices, and train and provide expertise and funding, the development of consolidated African states and their associated stability is a long, fraught process, and ownership must lie with Africans.
