What do we know about the links between HIV/AIDS and democracy? This study by the University of KwaZulu-Natal provides an updated review of current literature, suggesting that we know what we ‘expect to happen’ but very little about what is ‘actually happening’. It argues that there is a need for substantive research on the links between HIV/AIDS and democracy. Though the quality of many of the existing theoretical and predictive analyses is high, there is too much guesswork involved. Moreover, the range of research is still narrow.
There is a paucity of substantive data and primary research on the topic of HIV/AIDS and democracy. The vast majority of papers are theoretical or conceptual pieces which speculate on the possible, probable, or expected impact of HIV/AIDS on security and democracy, as well as the impact of insecurity and anti-democratic forces on accelerating the spread of HIV, or of democracy and governance on slowing that spread.
There has been widespread speculation from various sectors that democracy and related factors – such good governance, social cohesion and a strong civil society, as well as the absence of violent conflict and political instability – can help slow the HIV/AIDS epidemic and minimise its impact. There is, potentially, an important link between government legitimacy and prevention efforts.
There are other components of democracy that are commonly believed to help slow the epidemic and mitigate its impact.
- A strong and vibrant civil society is vital. Related to the importance of civil society in combating the epidemic is the theory of social cohesion as an intermediary factor that can slow the spread of HIV/AIDS.
- However, the link between democracy and social cohesion, and thereby between democracy and the spread of HIV, is complicated.
- Social cohesion can as likely stem from authoritative governing structures as from democratic inclusion and participatory civil society structures. Thus, even if higher levels of social cohesion can help slow the epidemic, there is no certainty that democratisation will increase social cohesion.
- Conditions of war, political instability and violent conflict provide fertile ground for the spread of HIV.
- The disruption of communities, the creation of refugee populations, the risk of sexual attack on women, the destruction of health services and the disruption of education systems that could teach AIDS prevention are important factors driving the epidemic.
The epidemic is likely to have a dire impact on the effectiveness and long-term sustainability of democracy in heavily-affected regions.
- AIDS will – and, in some cases, already does – undermine government capacity and the ability to provide services to the public, but it could also undermine the government’s public support and legitimacy.
- Civil society and human rights are expected to be negatively impacted by HIV/AIDS, which will then threaten the success and survival of democracy.
- The conception of HIV/AIDS as a threat to national, regional, and global security has gained rapid and widespread acceptance in recent years.
- Military personnel are more vulnerable to HIV/AIDS due to postings far from home, a risk-taking ethos, the age and demographic profile of military forces and the availability of illicit drugs and commercial sex workers near military camps.
- One of the commonly-cited means by which HIV/AIDS could cause insecurity and violent conflict is the large number of children who will be orphaned by HIV/AIDS in the coming years.