The death of UNITA rebel leader Jonas Savimbi in early 2002 prompted a cease- fire agreement with the Angolan government. This has held and is likely to be observed for the foreseeable future, giving Angola a real chance to build a lasting peace after 46 years of conflict. To exploit this chance successfully will require internal political will, plus coordinated advocacy from NGOs and aid donors.
A report from the International Crisis Group (ICG) identifies recent developments, obstacles to reform and suggests policy prescriptions. Constitutional reform is needed for democratic accountability; civil rights and a fixed date for a free election are priorities. State capacity must be built to provide social services if popular support is to be maintained. Economic diversification is essential (oil accounts for 90 per cent of exports), as is greater transparency in general, but particularly regarding oil revenues (an estimated one billion dollars is diverted to private offshore accounts annually).
Political power is highly concentrated, and some elements are against reform which would dissolve patronage networks and their slice of diverted oil funds. Other elements recognise the need for electoral and international support and will embrace reform tactically. The outcome depends on engagement with the issues above and also:
- Resettlement of those uprooted by war and reintegration of ex-combatants; protection of human rights and support for agriculture and micro-enterprise.
- Addressing inequities between the capital Luanda and rural provinces, especially the highland strongholds of UNITA support – fairness in land reform is crucial.
- Rebuilding national infrastructure (and clearing minefields) to allow movement of people and goods.
- Extension of the rule of law and pluralism; separation of state from the ruling party, the Popular Movement for Liberation of Angola (MPLA), especially in the provinces.
- Rebuilding state capacity: civil servants are rarely paid properly and turn to other jobs or corruption. This includes the police, bringing human rights implications.
- External debts: Angola is rich in natural resources, but owes nearly US$5bn and is not cleared for IMF loans, meaning many bilateral and multilateral donors are also unwilling to provide funds.
International support and advocacy may be particularly fruitful at present: Angola wants to enhance its international standing and President dos Santos is keen to improve his political legacy. Caution is advised, however: Angola’s colonial past has left resentment at exploitation by outsiders, and conditionality, however beneficial, may be seen as a continuation of this. A donors conference planned for 2003 offers opportunities for exerting positive influence, including:
- Funding agricultural assistance: an urgent issue to be addressed before the September 2003 planting season to avoid costly cereal imports.
- Advocating greater economic and political transparency to encourage investment and allow access to funds other than high-interest private loans. Transparency should also apply to the activities of oil companies investing in Angola.
- Supporting political party and civil society development: there is a danger that UNITA could be ‘bought off’, widening the elite circle slightly but blocking genuine reforms to benefit all Angolans.
- Multilateral cooperation between donors, the UN, international finance institutions and the government on overall development strategy, concentrating on core issues of landmines, roads, health and education.
