The Bonn Agreement established a transitional regime for Afghanistan. How far has peace-building progressed after two decades of conflict? Have the strategies been right? This paper from the Chr. Michelsen Institute (CMI), Norway reviews the developments since Bonn. It recommends new guidelines for peace-building strategies and a more specific role for Norway’s involvement in Afghanistan.
Conflict has been embedded in the process of rebuilding the Afghan state and economy. Nevertheless, relative peace has been maintained in large parts of the country. The political arena has been re-established and functions as a forum for resolving conflict. Relief programs are being replaced by a coherent reconstruction policy. These are significant achievements. They reflect a very substantial international commitment to prevent Afghanistan from sliding back into civil war or anarchy as well as the determination of most Afghans to use the war against the Taliban as a stepping-stone towards greater peace and development.
- The transitional administration struggled from the beginning with the implications of being a foreign-installed and foreign-financed government which created a basic legitimacy problem.
- While the importance of foreign assistance to maintain stability and start reconstruction is appreciated, the dependence on the international community conflicts with the declared principle that Afghans should be ‘in the driver’s seat’.
- The reconstruction policy, aimed to create rapid growth and to prevent Afghanistan from becoming a ‘narco-mafia state’ reinforced concerns about dependency, sustainability and legitimacy.
- The difficulty of trying to build peace whilst simultaneously waging war has become ever more evident.
- Human rights have been marginalised increasingly in the name of promoting stability.
- The neglect of demobilisation issues in the Bonn Agreement is one of its weaknesses.
A continued international commitment seems necessary to prevent a return to civil war in Afghanistan, but there is no clear recipe for how to move from preventing war to creating a better peace. The analysis suggests a few guidelines:
- Refocusing and limiting the war against the militants so as to reduce the negative impact on the peace building agenda.
- Emphasising institutional reforms and local capacity building as prerequisites for a large influx of new funds.
- Addressing issues that have been relatively neglected in the reconstruction process so far, including human rights, anti-poverty programs and policies that promote greater equality and equity in sharing the benefits of reconstruction.
- Anchoring the peace building process more firmly in the regional context, including creating an institutional forum for cooperation between Afghanistan and its neighbours.
- Norway should consider consolidating its present aid portfolio and concentrate on an identifiable niche where its contribution can make a difference.
