Security agendas worldwide are experiencing a trend away from traditional conflict between or among states to non-traditional threats such as intrastate conflict and terrorism. This paper, from the Geneva Centre for the Democratic Control of Armed Forces, reports on the proceedings of the 8th International Security Forum held in 2009. Coping with future security challenges requires reinforcement of international governance at both global and regional levels and increased coordination among defence, diplomacy and development actors.
The trend towards globalisation is irreversible; it is materialising rapidly and affecting all societies. It implies that states must assume an increasing number of interests and responsibilities outside their borders. The current financial and economic crisis resulted in the near collapse of economic systems in the industrialised world; emerging countries have been affected even more severely.
We are also experiencing a new distribution of economic and political power. China and India are rapidly becoming world powers. The West is experiencing a relative decline of its gross domestic product. Its domination in world economy and politics will probably come to an end in the coming decades.
Specific challenges of globalisation to international security are:
- Proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMDs). While the United Nations, Russia and the United States are improving the general disarmament climate, WMDs still constitute a critical security threat.
- New military developments. Various armed forces are testing more mobile forms of force projection in civil wars and violating human rights and international humanitarian law.
- Trafficking and terrorism. Failed or failing states are increasingly sheltering terrorists and traffickers of all sorts. Modern infrastructures are becoming easy targets for terrorism.
- Energy production and distribution. Control of production and transit of energy have become a factor of power politics. Attempts to control limited fossil energy stocks is increasing energy exploitation and impacting relationships between producing and consuming countries.
- Climate change. While the exact consequences of global warming are still under discussion, climate change promises to strongly impact human living conditions. It will alter food production, water quality and life on the coastlines of many parts of the world.
- Pandemics. As in the case of influenza A (H1N1), pandemics have a large potential to disrupt international security. Dealing with pandemics under conditions of global mobility is a daunting, though not impossible, task.
In order to cope with the coming changes in security agendas world wide, the following measures should be considered and adopted:
- International governance needs to be reinforced at the global and regional levels. International institutions have the means and legitimacy to address contemporary global challenges.
- While financial markets should not be stifled, they need a certain amount of regulation to avoid falling into errors of the past. Economic dynamics are needed to resume growth and fight poverty.
- There is a need for increased coherence, coordination and complementarity between and among defence, diplomacy and development actors.
