This paper reviews the options available for small island states to adapt to global environmental change, particularly climate change. Climate change may create new pressures for small island states (such as severe ocean acidification) and intensify others (such as sea-level changes) in a comparatively short, yet unpredictable, amount of time. Internal relocation and migration is a tested adaptation practice for such states, which already have well-established migration links. However, with greater access to financial resources – by increasing the extent to which island states profit from fishing or mining concessions, for example – and by investing in people and knowledge, states can reduce the need for future relocation.
In the context of this paper, ‘small island states’ refers to the 39 (diverse) members of the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS). Each of these countries is vulnerable to environmental change in a different way, and their opportunities for migration also vary.
Even in cases of severe sea-level rise, few island states would face full inundation or become fully uninhabitable. However, climate change will lead to increased risks of droughts and extreme weather events, as well as soil and freshwater degradation due to salinisation. Further challenges posed to small island states by climate change include:
- Ocean acidification: This will be a key challenge for island states, especially given the importance of fish as a food source.
- Effects on economic assets: The maritime territory and exclusive economic zones (EEZ) of all small island states will be affected.
- Risks to state sovereignty: Even those island states that do not become submerged may no longer be internationally recognised as states if their islands become uninhabitable. If passports that states have issued were no longer recognised internationally, their citizens’ migration opportunities would be limited.
Local adaptation has already included internal migration. In many islands, however, most land is customarily owned, hence even internal relocation involves social and political repercussions. Violence has, in several islands, been related to internal migration. Many donor-supported adaptation projects have been implemented on islands, but a comprehensive assessment on vulnerabilities and adaptation needs is lacking. In addition, existing activities are often only documented in a limited way.
Island states can adapt to climate change and reduce vulnerability – and thus reduce the need for relocation. In the short term, this requires financial resources and investment in human capital. Among other options, the following should be considered:
- Improving access to financial resources: This could include developing sovereign wealth funds (which several island states have already done) and increasing the extent to which island states profit from fishing or mining concessions.
- Pooling financial resources through joint insurance funds: With disasters such as hurricanes having a disproportionate impact on small island states, it would be useful to pool resources for post-disaster reconstruction and spread the risks. Donors could complement such funds.
- Fixing islands’ maritime territory: A state’s EEZ is a vital economic asset and defines sovereign territory. These could be negotiated among neighbouring countries. In addition, artificial constructs may be needed to delimit maritime borders.
- Reducing political and legal uncertainties: Island states should investigate whether governments would continue to recognise passports and allow citizens entry, and if their diplomatic missions would continue to enjoy special privileges.
- Investing in people and knowledge: Greater knowledge of climate change’s possible impacts is needed, particularly regarding sea-level change. Investment in human capital is also important. The ability to provide highly skilled labour might also facilitate migration, should that become necessary.
