What determines the ability of ex-combatants to reintegrate into society? What impact do international disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration (DDR) efforts have on reintegration? This article from the Journal of Conflict Resolution uses data on ex-combatants in Sierra Leone to analyse individual-level determinants of demobilisation and reintegration. It finds little evidence at the micro level to suggest that internationally funded DDR programmes facilitate demobilisation and reintegration.
Evidence from Sierra Leone does not support the hypothesis that participation in DDR programmes increases the degree to which combatants are accepted by their communities. The data also shows no relationship between participation in DDR programmes and democratic attitudes, or the likelihood of breaking ties with factions or returning home. Theory suggests that DDR programmes should be more effective for combatants who distrust other groups or are dissatisfied with the results of the peace process. The evidence from Sierra Leone suggests that DDR programmes have no greater effect on these groups than on others. Failure to find evidence that DDR programmes have facilitated reintegration should be treated with caution, however, due to possible spillover and selection effects and sampling bias.
Measurement of different dimensions of reintegration produced distinct results, indicating that different processes underlie each dimension of reintegration. Analysis of the determinants of successful reintegration in Sierra Leone reveals that:
- individuals who distrust other factions are less likely to trust the democratic process or to have broken ties with their own factions;
- neither female nor younger ex-combatants face a significantly more difficult task in gaining acceptance, finding employment, breaking ties to factions or trusting democratic processes;
- less well educated and poorer individuals have more success in reintegrating, while more educated ex-combatants were less likely to be employed;
- higher ranking officers in the various military factions display a strong rejection of the democratic system;
- the abusiveness of the military faction in which a combatant participated is associated strongly and negatively with a combatant’s ease in achieving reintegration; and
- individuals settling in wealthier locations face greater difficulty reintegrating, while those settling in communities which experienced greater suffering are less likely to gain community acceptance.
Policy-makers concerned with demonstrating the efficacy of DDR programmes must employ more robust strategies for identifying programme effects. Specifically, where feasible, they should consider randomising the timing of participation in DDR programmes to provide appropriate treatment and control groups. The advantages of this approach include that:
- it is increasingly feasible given logistical considerations which necessitate delays in the extension of programmes to different communities. Any limit on the feasibility of providing treatment to all recipients at one time is an opportunity for this approach;
- it can mitigate problems posed by spillover effects and sampling bias. Randomised design allows one to use variation in the density of treatment communities in a given region to estimate externalities experienced by nontreatment communities.
- it ensures that the population for which inferences can be made is well defined and identified – it is precisely that population for which the randomisation in treatment allocation is undertaken.
