The socioeconomic impacts of war and large-scale violence are often devastating, multiple and wide- ranging, and it is with some justification that violent conflict has come to be identified over the years as a major barrier to development. Yet, although recent years have seen a marked increase in the level of interest directed towards conflict-affected situations – or, to use the more common (and more contested) terminology, ‘fragile states’ – our understanding of the realities of, and the processes occurring within, such places remains limited. Researchers and policymakers continue to struggle to make sense of the heterogeneity of war’s impacts – for example, among different population groups or over time – and fundamental questions regarding the effectiveness of programming loom large. This is particularly concerning given recent escalations in bilateral funding to states affected by conflict and fragility.
In light of the problems we know war causes, the recognition that there is still much we do not know, and the increasing visibility and influence of the ‘fragile states agenda’, this review synthesises the available evidence on livelihoods and growth in fragile and conflict-affected situations with the aim of identifying key findings (what do we know?), pinpointing specific weaknesses in the literature (what are we missing?) and shedding light on the nature and composition of the evidence base (what are we dealing with?). It brings together an extensive range of sources, identified through a rigorous and comprehensive search methodology, and uses this material as the basis for a mapping exercise whereby the literature is disaggregated into a number of different types or ‘categories’ of evidence . The report finds that four such ‘categories’ appear to dominate the burgeoning literature on growth and livelihoods in fragile and conflict-affected situations:
- Crunching the numbers: quantitative assessment and aggregate-level statistical evidence. Includes cross-country econometric evidence focusing on the economics of conflict onset, the costs of war, and aid effectiveness (dominated by regression analyses of large-number datasets); and quantitative description, analysis and measurement of livelihoods (e.g. Household Economy Approaches, Vulnerability Assessment Mapping)
- What works?Programmatic evidence. Offers ‘lessons learnt’ and policy guidance on the practical mechanics of generating economic growth and supporting livelihoods, in terms of both broad policy reforms and specific interventions
- Detailing the impacts of conflict: micro-level and case study evidence. Includes highly contextual qualitative case study evidence focusing on analyses of how people, communities and businesses respond to conflict; and micro-level quantitative evidence focusing on the transmission mechanisms (e.g. human capital formation) through which conflict affects poverty, incomes and growth
- Enabling (economic) environments: growth diagnostics and business climate evidence. Broadly focused on business and investment climates, this category contains growth diagnostics evidence identifying the most severe ‘binding constraints’ on economic growth in conflict-affected situations; and macro-level Doing Business / firm-level Enterprise Survey evidence measuring investment climates
The report features an ‘intervention tracker’ which acts as a kind of ‘contents page’ for specific programmes; readers can easily identify which interventions are covered and access these quickly through a series of hyperlinks. Similarly, consistent cross-referencing throughout the paper – again, with hyperlinks for better accessibility – helps to signpost relevant additional information and related sub-sections within the review.