Adaptation and climate risk management is becoming an increasingly important policy discourse in almost all African countries. There is consensus that a response to climate change demands a concerted approach grounded in the principle of collective but differentiated responsibility. However, divergences in the perceived causes of climate change have revealed a deep divide between the developed and developing worlds.
This paper reviews the existing evidence on the security threat of climate change in Africa and discusses policy implications. It finds that climate change may pose different types of security threats. For example, insufficient rainfall and rising temperatures can lead to droughts, resource scarcity and conflict because of intensified land use. In addition, conflict may arise from new environmental conditions created by climate change-related events, such as a rise in the sea level and extreme weather. Uncertainty regarding the intensity of climate change may have irreversible global consequences: it is important to take precautionary action even when the probability of the impact of climate change is low.
The risk of conflict is exacerbated where governance structures are weak. Where resource scarcity has intensified grievances, putting into place good governance structures could be instrumental in breaking the cycle of climate-change effects. In addition, Africa urgently needs to put into place a common policy on specific key sectors, such as pastoralism and transboundary resources. A focus on biological diversity in local, national and regional agricultural policies is also essential. African farmers, scientists and policymakers should work together to develop the sustainable use of biological resources.
