What is the impact of deep structures, formal and informal institutions, and current events on the nature of the state in Pakistan and its relations with society? This report from The Initiative for Peacebuilding analyses the causes of weak state-society relations in Pakistan and explores the complex power dynamics that underpin them. Despite the bleak picture that emerges, a better understanding of the context can help the international community to engage with Pakistan on a constructive and long-term basis, with the overall objective of supporting genuine democratisation and building substantive citizenship.
This report applies the methodology of the State-Society Analytical Framework (SSAF) and is structured around three dimensions: (i) foundational factors; (ii) rules of the game; and (iii) the current context.
The fragile situation in Pakistan needs to be understood in the context of the historical interaction between formal and informal factors. The legacy of colonial rule has had a significant impact on formal state structures and the way in which society interacts with them. Upon independence, Pakistan inherited a system of governance based on a strong civilian bureaucracy, a powerful military class, and dominant elite groups.
Politics is highly personalised and patrimonial. Political leaders often rely on patron-client networks to secure votes, while citizens often resort to personal networks and informal intermediaries to access goods and services. Other findings include:
- Substantive power is held by a small elite and its military allies. Strong horizontal networks organised around shared interests are lacking.
- A growing and educated urban middle class may have the potential to encourage reform.
- Political competition is distorted by the pervasive role of the military in politics – and increasingly in other parts of economic and social life.
- Citizens do not enjoy substantive citizenship in so far as they lack the formal means to make their voices heard and to hold politicians to account.
- While the political executive faces few checks and balances, its capacity to formulate and implement policy and deliver services is quite weak. This limited capacity to operate effectively and to build the necessary legitimacy to justify its dominant position in Pakistan’s society, represents one of the biggest risks in terms of the country’s long-term stability.
- The legitimacy vacuum left by an elite that is unresponsive to the needs of the population threatens to be filled by actors and ideologies that can mobilise masses effectively, though not necessarily along a progressive path. Religious extremism needs to be understood in this context.
In terms of the international community’s engagement in Pakistan, the risk is that security considerations will prevail over the need for a long-term process of genuine democratisation and building of substantive citizenship. Key issues include:
- The escalation of internal conflict between Pakistani state forces and the Taliban.
- An increase in cross-border attacks by US drones and other intrusions. This has led to strong public and political pressure on Pakistani forces to respond. There is also increased pressure on Pakistan to keep a check on the resurgent Taliban.
- A dramatic rise in tensions with India, especially in the aftermath of the terrorist bombings in Mumbai.
- A reversal in economic growth, which has been exacerbated by the global economic crisis. Pakistan has signed a new programme with the IMF, which imposes new conditions in the area of fiscal discipline.
