This Issue Brief from the Small Arms Survey’s Human Security Baseline Assessment (HSBA) for Sudan and South Sudan, reviews Southern insurgent activities in 2012-13, focusing on groups’ strength, goals, achievements, and disposition following a renewed offer of amnesty from President Salva Kiir.
Among the report’s key findings:
- Southern rebel insurgencies have decreased significantly in 2012–13. As of early October 2013, only David Yau Yau’s militia remains active. But, while most commanders have accepted President Salva Kiir’s blanket amnesty, it remains to be seen whether the resulting agreements will be fully implemented and the forces fully integrated.
- Yau Yau’s decision to re-defect in 2012 was influenced by SPLA abuses against the Murle during its civilian disarmament campaign in Pibor county in mid-2012, his dissatisfaction with his initial amnesty package, and ongoing patronage from Khartoum. While the forces of Peter Gadet and Gatluak Gai have been fully integrated into the SPLA, surrendered forces formerly under Yau Yau, Athor, and Bapiny Monituel continue to await integration, some since as early as 2011. Long-term failure to integrate former insurgent forces is a risk factor for renewed rebellion.
- Southern insurgent groups that had moved to rear bases in South Kordofan and Blue Nile, Sudan, have accepted President Kiir’s amnesty offer, returned to South Sudan, and are negotiating the terms for their integration. Khartoum’s pledge to eliminate assistance to them, following an agreement with Juba, appears to be a factor in their surrender.
- The underlying conditions that have influenced insurgents in Greater Upper Nile continue, including the political marginalization of the Shilluk and Murle, SPLA abuses of civilians, and issues related to land and territory.
- As recently as August 2013, the Government of Sudan was continuing to aid Yau Yau’s militia, and providing them with arms, despite official denials.
- Yau Yau continues to arm Murle youths, and remains a primary source of arms for civilians in South Sudan. Other vectors include supply from the SPLA for ‘community policing’, the recirculation of arms after disarmament processes, and the capture of Hejlij in April 2012, in which many civilians looted stocks.
