Does increasing talk about reform in the Arab countries translate into actual reform? Who is talking about reform, and why? This paper from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace discusses the internal and external factors that have pushed the debate about reform to the top of the political agenda in Arab countries since September 11th. It explains the different perspectives on reform in the region, and assesses the balance of reform efforts so far.
Since the terrorist attacks of September 11th, 2001, the question of Arab reform has become closely linked in the minds of Western policy makers to the fight against terrorism, and has become a dominant theme for discussion in the region itself. However, the recent debates represent an evolution of an earlier liberalising trend, rather than a wholly new stage in Arab politics. A combination of factors has stimulated the current emphasis on reform, including developments in the Arab region and the unprecedented international pressure for change.
External pressure would not have been sufficient to trigger a debate about reform in the absence of domestic socioeconomic and political factors. It is these which have pushed a majority of Arab governments to accept the necessity for change and emboldened domestic critics to speak up more openly. Political reform has now become a topic of regional concern. External and internal factors affecting the debate about reform are:
- The U.S. occupation of Iraq exposed Arab governments to fresh charges of incompetence from their citizens and enhanced their desire to portray themselves as reformers.
- September 11th led to heightened security measures and the limitation of civil and political rights in Arab countries, at the same time as it reinforced the need for reform.
- Some countries experienced political pressures unrelated to the threat of terrorism that forced them to face the necessity of change.
- The change of political generations in some countries led to a new climate in which some domestic issues are now more open to discussion.
- The declining appeal of old ideologies such as pan-Arabism and Arab socialism has generated greater receptiveness to the idea of liberal politics and democratic reform.
- Some Islamist groups, such as the Muslim Brotherhood, have become more open to at least debating the merits of democracy.
Talk about reform in the Arab world exceeds actual reform implemented, and the reforms that have been carried out are quite modest and do not affect the fundamentally authoritarian character of Arab governments. Furthermore, there is no popular movement for democratic change in the Arab world, only a growing willingness among some members of the elite to question existing systems and deliberate future options. Nonetheless, an important debate about political change is clearly underway, and voices challenging the very need for reform are fainter than before. Key points for policy are:
- There is no agreement on what political reform means among the different perspectives on reform (liberal democracy, moderate Islam and modernisation).
- A cross-cutting theme is the rejection of, or at best a very grudging attitude towards, the role of outsiders in promoting reform.
- The context for reform varies considerably from country to country.
- The willingness of Western countries to press for democratisation, rather than to accept modernising measures, will help determine the long-term significance of the current reform debate.
