What are the most important factors in determining the durability of peace in post-conflict countries? This paper from the Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) reports on the results of a statistical study of post-conflict risks and the impact of military, political, social, economic and temporal factors on peace. While post-conflict political design of constitutional structures and elections may have intrinsic value, they do not increase the probability of enduring peace. Rather, peace appears to depend on robust external military assistance sustaining gradual economic recovery.
The predominant theory of conflict emphasises conditions that determine the feasibility of rebellion as more important than motivation. The most important indicators of feasibility of rebellion are low per capita income, slow economic growth and large exports of natural resources. Yet current post-conflict policy addresses the risk of return to conflict primarily through political design, implying that motivation – grievances based on political exclusion – is the chief cause of conflict. If the feasibility theory of conflict is applied to post-conflict situations, economic and military instruments might be more important than political mechanisms in reducing the risk of a return to conflict.
- The lower the per capita income of the country at the end of the conflict, the more likely it is that it will return to conflict. Economic development reduces risks, but it takes a long time.
- Peacekeeping expenditures significantly reduce the risks of further conflict.
- Post-conflict elections neither increase nor decrease risk of conflict. During an election year the society experiences a lull that is followed by a resurgence of risk. Elections can also generate a misleading signal of calm.
- The degree of democracy or autocracy has no significant effects on risks. In fact, severe autocracy appears to be highly successful in maintaining post-conflict peace.
- The risk of a return to conflict during the first four post-conflict years is 23%. During the subsequent six years it is 17%. For policy purposes, the entire post-conflict decade faces a high level of risk.
These findings have a number of policy implications:
- International post-conflict efforts should be concentrated disproportionately in the poorest countries and should focus heavily upon economic recovery.
- Elections should not be treated as a systemic solution to the problem of post-conflict risk. They should be promoted as intrinsically desirable rather than as mechanisms to improve the chances for peace.
- There are limits to how much past conflict situations can be a guide to the future. Nevertheless, because post-conflict issues are so burdened with ideology and political glamour, statistical analysis can be a useful antidote to other influences on post-conflict policy.