What obstacles and challenges will negotiations between an interim Somali government and the Republic of Somaliland face? What are the likely scenarios for a dialogue on Somali unity? This article from African Security Review examines the issues likely to be involved in negotiations on Somali unity. It argues that while such a dialogue will be challenging and risky, the most probable alternative is the emergence of an intractable conflict. The international community should therefore discard its “wait-and-see” attitude in favour of active preventive diplomacy.
Arguably the most difficult problem facing a transitional Somali government will be the unity of the Somali Republic. The Republic of Somaliland (northwest Somalia) declared its independence in 1991 and a significant majority of Somalilanders now support independent statehood. The Republic of Somaliland has yet to gain international recognition, however, and the vast majority of southern Somalis oppose Somaliland’s independence. Somaliland’s political leaders have long argued that they are prepared to enter into dialogue with a southern Somali government. The formation of a Somali government could therefore be followed by dialogue with Somaliland, leading either to a mutually acceptable association or an amicable divorce.
The notion of dialogue between a transitional Somali government and Somaliland offers an attractive and superficially plausible method of addressing the issue of Somali unity. In practice, it is likely to prove a complex proposition that could easily exacerbate tensions rather than mitigate them:
- Both sides will have to confront strong domestic opposition to any dialogue, while the status of the parties in negotiations will also represent an obstacle. Both sides will seek to set the agenda for dialogue in support of their mutually exclusive positions.
- In negotiating an association, Somaliland will expect significant concessions in return for sacrificing outright independence. Southern leaders, however, will fear that such concessions could upset power-sharing arrangements in the south.
- A negotiated association will require effective integration of the two territories. Differences in levels of political and economic development will make their amalgamation a formidable challenge.
- Negotiating a separation is likely to be just as difficult as negotiating unity. Somaliland will not want to allow the southern government a veto on its independence. Both sides are likely to disagree over the terms of a referendum.
- International recognition of an interim Somali government will implicitly favour Somali unity, making the prospects for a peaceful, negotiated settlement more difficult.
- The African Union Peace and Security Council could take the issue under formal consideration before the formation of an interim Somali government. This would justify opening communication with both sides before and during the transitional period.
- Foreign governments and international organisations should actively engage with both parties to reinforce their commitment to a negotiated outcome.
- A form of qualified recognition would help to level the playing field and provide an incentive for both sides to negotiate. One such form of recognition would be awarding both parties observer status in various international organisations.
- The African Union and the United Nations could establish procedures for monitoring progress during the transitional period that would include resolution of the unity issue.
