What is the possibility of rebuilding Somalia as a functioning state? How does the regional context impact on state-building in Somalia? This book chapter examines the challenges facing state-building in Somalia. It argues that the crisis in Somalia is multileveled, as is the route to a calmer future. State-building in Somalia requires a combination of strategies, preferably ones that include civil society as well as formal political actors.
Somalia is a patchwork of warlord oligopolies with clusters of violence spread along clan-based fiefdoms, with no central authority or rule of law. Domestic causes of conflict include the fragmentation of warlord fiefdoms, the absence of a state, the proliferation of criminal networks and repression by various actors. Regional conflicts also play out in Somalia, including the conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea. Ethiopia and Christian majority states, with US support, back Somalia’s Transitional Federal Government (TFG), while Eritrea and Muslim majority states back the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC).
Several attempts have been made to create a state in Somalia, but some regional and international actors might prefer a failed state in the country. Failed attempts, as well as possible obstacles for state-building in Somalia, include the following:
- Diaspora government – A state cannot be created from outside and imposed on a stateless territory. Due to continuous insecurity and the warlords’ rule, it has been impossible for any transitional government since 1991 to install itself in Mogadishu.
- Support for one faction – Another measure used in Somalia is the imposition of one warlord or clan-based ruling group through financial support. This overlooks that the warlords might not be interested in becoming a genuine national government.
- Disregard for territorial integrity – There seems to be full impunity for abuses on Somali territory, providing space for criminal networks, smuggling, piracy and terrorism. This also encourages states to act on Somali territory outside of international law.
The direction in which Somalia develops will depend partly on the strategies applied to its state-building process. State-building has thus far been dominated by a security-first strategy and has tended to follow a top-down approach. However, state-building in Somalia requires a combination of strategies, including:
- Liberalisation first, based on democratisation and economic reforms – Liberalisation first in Somalia could be a long-term strategy based on businesses’ and warlords’ needs for stability in order to increase their profits from trade.
- Security first, based on establishing a monopoly of violence and SSR – Ethiopian troops have failed to provide the TFG with a monopoly of force in Somalia. Given the number of fighters in Somalia, SSR will be difficult.
- Institutionalisation first, based on strengthening political and administrative institutions and the rule of law – A Somali institutionalisation first strategy would be a valid step. Institutions must reflect the current governance structure and needs of Somalia.
- Civil society first, focusing on participation, NGOs, unions and political parties – A civil society first approach in Somalia faces a number of challenges. However, it enables diverse voices to be heard and is important for a sustainable strategy.
