Why is there a gap between warning and response in many conflicts? Why do regional organisations not use early warning and response (EWR) mechanisms more effectively? Current EWR mechanisms have four key weaknesses to address; they need to adequately consider causal chains, the local space, the impact of small events, and under what conditions they can be effectively replicated. Regional organisations do not use EWR effectively because of political interest, institutional rigidity, a lack of information that is tailor-made for decision-makers, and a lack of capacity. Concepts need to be developed on the precise role of regional organisations in EWR.
EWR tries to estimate the magnitude and timing of risks of emerging threats; it analyses the nature of these threats and communicates warning analyses to decision-makers. The article identifies five types of EWR models: causal models, predictive models, risk and capacity assessments (ranking and performance), risk and capacity assessments with an early response component, and investigative research and intelligence.
The African Union uses a risk assessment model with an early warning component. The Economic Community of West African States and The Intergovernmental Authority on Development in East Africa use systems which combine elements of several models.
EWR mechanisms should define clearly who they are going to alert and who is expected to respond at different levels of authority. The future of EWR lies in the consolidation of advanced models, the intensified sharing of data collections and the public provision of relevant information. There are four key shortcomings of current EWR models, regarding:
- The difficult cases and the small incidents. Models do not achieve truly accurate forecasts on moderately stable countries. There is little knowledge about the impact of small events.
- The causes of conflict. The correlation of selected indicators with violent conflict does not reveal causal chains and so is of limited relevance for intervention strategies.
- The local space. Most models rely on quantitative data available over long timeframes. As a result, questions of civil society development, participation, local governance and dispute resolution are not adequately incorporated.
- The possibility of replication. Most models do not clearly spell out under what conditions they can be regarded as effective.
Concepts on the precise role of regional organisations in the nexus between the national and global level should be developed. Regional EWR models could push forward the need for communication and co-ordination between these levels. There are several reasons why EWR is not currently used effectively:
- Institutional rigidity and cognitive bias. EWR mechanisms must address not only a vaguely defined ‘international community’, but find ways to inform different levels of potential actors from the global to the local.
- The disconnect between early warning advisers and early action decision-makers. Decision-makers need tailor-made information rather than general reports on the potential emergence of violent conflict.
- Political interest. Probably the most important structural deficiency is that governments do not want or are unable to react. Certain governments make sure that the relevant regional bodies remain weak in early warning.
- Lack of capacity and inefficient allocation and use of resources.
