How does HIV/AIDS threaten the existence of democratic government? For southern Africa where democracies are still young and fragile, this remains an unanswered question. This working paper, published by the Centre for Social Science Research at the University of Cape Town, explores arguments supporting the view that the pandemic could cause the region’s democracies to break down.
Sustainable and consolidated democracies require three key conditions: economic growth, independent political institutions and widespread belief in the system. Southern Africa’s fledgling democracies have yet to reach this point, and the fast growing impact of HIV/AIDS may make it difficult, if not impossible. The pandemic may threaten growth and the process of institutionalisation. Voters’ enthusiasm for democracy may shift to whatever political process seems most likely to increase their chances of survival. Yet there is still not enough information to accurately assess the threat HIV/AIDS poses to democracy. Further research must be undertaken so that democrats can decide what should be done to ensure the survival of their political systems.
Drawing up a set of scenarios, based partly on logic and partly on conjecture, the paper demonstrates how HIV/AIDS could block and even reverse democratic development across southern Africa. This is because:
- Economic growth may be harmed by falling incomes, sharply higher health costs, diminishing tax bases, rising labour costs and lower productivity.
- The financial and administrative capacity of the state, and to an extent the private sector, to provide essential services and medical treatment could diminish, leading to greater inequality and political disaffection.
- Political institutionalisation may be sent off course by increasing illness and death among politicians and government officials, undermining the state.
- Decreasing adult life expectancy and growing numbers of people faced with the prospect of early death could reduce incentives to participate in democratic politics and to comply with the rules of the state.
- Discrimination, stigma and conflict over scarce resources may increase political conflict and criminal behaviour.
Research into how citizens, political elites and institutions change their political behaviour in the face of HIV/AIDS remains scarce. However, the advancing state of the pandemic across the region appears to offer enough data and variance to test the questions raised in the paper. Areas recommended for further study are:
- Experimental research by psychologists examining the impact of changing adult life expectancy on individual and co-operative behaviour.
- Cross-national, national and sub-national surveys to test how those infected or affected by HIV/AIDS respond in terms of their commitment to democracy, trust in government and satisfaction with state output.
- A specialised regional survey examining the above issues, which could make use of aggregate data to test the correlation of voter turnout, tax compliance and crime rates with HIV infection rates.
- The use of existing or specially designed surveys to provide better information on the organisational impact of HIV/AIDS on civil society.
- Sampling to investigate whether there is evidence of increased political organising around HIV/AIDS.
- Systematic comparison of orphans and non-orphans in terms of schooling, integration into households and their social values. The effects of AIDS orphanage should be distinct from those of ordinary orphanage.
