Will the forthcoming elections in Myanmar (Burma) herald real change for the country? This briefing updates an earlier assessment in 2009 and analyses the 2010 electoral legislation, the impact of the elections on ethnic tension, and the impact of privatisation of public assets on Myanmar’s political economy. The first elections in twenty years will not bring genuine multi-party democracy to Myanmar. However, the political and generational shift that the elections will generate may represent the best opportunity in a generation to influence the future direction of the country. The new government should be pushed towards greater openness, not further into isolation.
Myanmar’s constitutional and legislative framework is designed to ensure a leading political role for the military, and its control of major economic assets will ensure its autonomy and influence for many years to come. The main opposition party, the NLD, has decided not to participate in the elections and has thus been deregistered. Yet, other democrats, including leading figures from the NLD, will contest the elections. Many ethnic parties will also contest, believing that this is the best way to ensure representation of their communities in the political process. The electoral legislation is almost identical to the laws governing the 1990 poll, including provisions that led to a broadly fair count, except for highly restrictive provisions in the Political Parties Registration Law. This suggests that, as in 1990, the election campaign will be highly controlled and far from free, but election-day voting may well be relatively fair.
In the run-up to the elections, few registered opposition parties have the capacity to contest a majority of seats across the country. Further:
- Emotion rather than strategy propelled the NLD’s decision not to participate. The decision may have harmed opposition to military rule by undermining those democrats who do contest the elections.
- There has been strong international criticism of the new constitution and of the fact that the elections will not be inclusive.
- There have been renewed ethnic tensions in the pre-election period, including violent incidents. However it is unlikely that any militant group will derail the election.
The political and generational shift that the elections will bring about may provide important opportunities for domestic and international stakeholders to push for political, social, and economic reform. The key point of engagement for the international community with the post-election government should be over the ethnic question. Progress on the many challenges facing the people of Myanmar cannot take place without a sustainable solution to this issue. After the election:
- A new generation of leaders will take the reins of power in Naypyitaw. Power will be divided between several individuals and institutions. No single individual will be able to dominate decision-making in the way that Than Shwe has in recent years.
- The mass sell-off of public assets will have greater impact on the political economy than the elections themselves by providing significant off-budget resources available to the army.
- Aun Suun Kyi will continue to wield considerable moral and political authority in the country and internationally. With the NLD not contesting the election, her influence may increase as a national figure standing above politics.
